Part 4 : A look ahead
Definite winners are going to be the media houses . They have media assets they can utilise and by sending their traffic to their own brand , they can become big players in the market
Tsachi Maimon , Aspire Global
has been in competition with the majority of all the upcoming new licence holders for many years but now the competition will be on more equal terms for all parties going forward .”
Channelling Much as the leading players in the market are well known , it can be expected that there will be some further brands entering the market as of January . As mentioned earlier , there is optimism on the part of the government with regard to the degree of channelisation that will be achieved by the new regulated regime .
The carrot of the government ’ s approach is the prospect of being involved in a vibrant and open market , but the report from April last year suggested that the state should augment its enforcement measures as it looked to ensure that “ effective sanctions ” were in place for unlicensed operators .
Already set in motion are proposals such as including warning messages for gaming on unlicensed game sites , blocking of payments
to unlicensed operators and the taxation of players ’ winnings from unlicensed games ( although as mentioned , this last is likely to be ineffective given the lack of incentive for reporting such winnings .) The report suggested consideration should then be given to a raft of further potential measures although it failed to outline any specific ideas , suggesting merely that a report should be compiled on the experience from other regulated jurisdictions .
What constitutes a success on channelisation is , however , something of a moving target depending on who you speak to . Hoffstedt at the bookmakers ’ association , for instance , suggests that the government might well get close to its 90 % stated target but that this is “ far too low ”.
“ With a better regulation we should be able to reach at least 95 %,” he adds . “ The UK has shown that such channelisation [ levels are ] possible .”
Looking at the same base figure from the government , Flynn from JackpotJoy ( JPJ ) is more optimistic . “ There will always be those that do not follow the regulation ,” he says . “ However , given the reasonable tax rates , and the aim to protect players in ways which most reputable operators do already , I think it should capture at least 85-90 % of the grey market .”
Similar optimism comes from Maimon at Aspire Global , who points to the listed nature : “ The majority of the grey market ( is controlled ) by listed public companies , and the rest are companies that are about to go public ,” he says , mentioning Casumo . “ The chances are that the government will succeed very much with the regulation and minimise the grey market to a very low level .”
On the face of it , the government stands a good chance of reaching its target for channelisation though there are two caveats . First , with the Norwegian black market so close physically and culturally , the chances of a bleed across from dotcom operators targeting that country are high . Second , as mentioned elsewhere in this report , the unintended consequences of the bonusing element of the legislation might create an incentive for players to seek play elsewhere if they feel that the rewards are significant enough .
It is hard to gauge the exact measures of carrot and stick for operators within a regulated market and the same goes for the players . The Swedish authorities will need to recognise that too much stick with regard to bonusing , for instance , could have the opposite effect than intended for the players .
Sweden : The transition to regulation in one of Europe ’ s most advanced digital markets 23