Part 4 : The future
Considering that the current economic situation is now much more favourable , it is possible local authorities may decide to change the applicable tax regime .
Óscar Madureira , Rato , Ling , Lei and Cortes
is calculated on a more operatorfriendly GGR basis and , indeed , that has just lowered its rate of GGR to 20 % as the authorities hope to further shut down the offshore opportunity .
There is a comparison to be drawn with France , not so much economically but in terms of the harshness of the regulatory and tax regime . France , of course , not only has a turnover regime on sports – albeit lower than in Portugal — but also continues to ban online casino gaming . As a consequence , despite its relative wealth the per capital online gambling spend figure is a very low € 14.38 . This figure is 17 % larger than Portugal ’ s per capita number .
However , if we take the 60 % channelling estimate from the RGA and add this report ’ s 2017 offshore estimate to the actual figure , we get just over € 200m , which translates into per capita online gambling spend of € 19.42 .
This is 61 % above the Spanish figure . To get close to matching this figure – Spain is substantially richer than Portugal on a GDP per capita basis – it would mean the Spanish offshore market would be substantially larger than is currently perceived . This is notwithstanding the moves to lower tax in Spain .
What these numbers suggest is that the true size of the online market as a whole is somewhere around , or below , € 200m . Given the issues mentioned in the last section with the RGA / Eurogroup survey , it might be that the rate of channelling into onshore might be higher than that report suggests .
It is also likely that the fast-moving nature of any regulated market makes all such calculations difficult given the potential for shifting player behaviour . Almost certainly , for instance , the rate of channelling at the start of 2017 is very different to that of mid-2018 .
What can certainly be said is that the tax rate is retarding growth in terms of licensees and regulated market GGR . As we have shown , when it comes to sports betting in particular the tax rate is punishing and will almost certainly be having an effect on the nature of the offerings available in the regulated market .
Arguments about the total tax take are difficult . It is hard to say that the tax take via , say , a 30 % GGR regime on an enlarged market would be much greater than the current levels of absolute tax revenues from online gambling .
But there are certainly valid concerns about consumer protection that can be answered by a higher rate of channelisation . It is , moreover , a well-trodden route for regulators across Europe and there must be hopes that the Portuguese authorities will eventually see it in the same light .
Portugal : The challenges and potential in one of Europe ’ s most controversial markets 23