Part 2: Operator review
Chart 6: Denmark estimated overall market shares( 2017)
Sources: Danske Spil, company reports, report estimates
higher or lower by a matter of single figure percentage points. With the first we would suggest that its market share must sensibly range between 12.5 % and 17.5 % while in the latter’ s case, it might sensibly range between 7.5 % and 12.5 %.
Looking at the last of the top four players in Denmark Bet365, our estimates must necessarily involve more educated guesswork. Based simply on our Kindred / Unibet estimate we would suggest placing Bet365 also at between 12.5 % and 17.5 % of the total market with a central estimate of 15 %.
Mr Green The latest big name operator to enter the Danish market is Mr Green which bought out the Dansk Underholdning licensed business in February of last year. This includes the Danish-facing gaming brands Bingosjov, Bingoslottet and Balletbingo. Mr Green said on acquisition that Dansk Underholdning had achieved
Danske Spil 31 %
Kindred / Unibet 15 %
Bet365 15 %
Betsson / Betsafe / Nordicbet 10 %
LeoVegas 3 %
Others 26 %
In its most recent update, Mr Green told a capital markets day audience in late May that Denmark was worth 5 % of total group revenue in April
revenues of € 3.9m in 2016 or DKK29m. That would equate just about 1 % of the 2016 market total of DKK2.97bn.
Subsequently, the Mr Green brand was launched at the very end of December. In its most recent update, Mr Green told a capital markets day audience in late May that Denmark was worth 5 % of total group revenue in April.
On acquisition, Mr Green said the existing business was growing ahead of the market at 27 % a year. Assuming this momentum continued into 2017, it is a fair guess that this translated into overall market share growth. Jesper Kärrbrink, chief executive at Mr Green Ltd, who called Denmark the“ missing piece” of the company’ s Nordic puzzle, suggested the acquisition route had“ cut short the market entry process” by six months by adding a“ skilled Danish team”.
Still, we will have to wait for later quarterly releases from Mr Green to see what the company says about its Danish revenues before estimating any market share growth. As it stands we can estimate the Danish businesses were worth at least DKK34m and up to DKK68m, or between 1 % and 2 % of the total market in 2017.
Total market shares With Danske Spil and LeoVegas’ absolute figures anchoring our estimates for the rest of the market, we arrive at the market share percentages shown in Chart 6.
Others We have excluded Mr Green from Chart 6 due to the uncertainty around current market share. Likewise in the‘ others’ bucket are such big global betting names as Betfair, 888, GVC, JackpotJoy and Stars Group. None has been so bold as to give a figure for gaming in Denmark. It can be assumed that each has a market share of at least as much as LeoVegas or Mr Green and maybe more. However, without any guidance for any of them, we have opted against pinning a market share percentage on any of them.
14 Denmark: Insights and data on Europe’ s pioneer model for igaming regulation