ELECTION SPECIAL
“With all the hype, it’s surprising that only a relatively small
number of operators seem to be targeting these searches
specifically. Our industry trackers clearly show Ladbrokes,
William Hill, Coral and Paddy Power being dominant, with
Winner and bwin showing spurts of activity.”
campaign videos going viral and racking up
tens of thousands of views in the process.
A quick search on YouTube reveals close
to 600,000 views on clips around the last
Leaders Debate alone, and since Google
allows gambling advertisers to run so-called
“pre-roll” campaigns on YouTube, this
might be the perfect channel to scale the
buzz around UK election betting.
With virtually none of the operators
touching this space, online video presents
an excellent opportunity for a savvy
operator to position their election betting
offering perfectly alongside trending
commentary and analysis and accurately
reach the target audience.
Player value considerations
William Hill made headlines during the
Scottish Referendum vote when they
recorded the biggest political bet of all
time with one man betting £900,000 on the
Scots rejecting independence. Similarly eye-
popping bets are being placed on the UK
elections, with one London-based gambler
staking £200,000 on a hung parliament
and another risking £85,000 that the
Conservatives will have the most seats.
Notwithstanding such record-breaking
bets by individual punters grabbing
the headlines, some operators remain
sceptical as to the revenue that can be
expected from political betting customers.
Effectively representing a new punter
demographic, it will be interesting to
see how these players develop over time
and whether their characteristics mirror
existing trends or develop new patterns.
Tied to this is of course the expected
player value and without much historic
data to consult, it is difficult to model
concise lifetime value projections. As
such, it might be prudent to not commit
to overly aggressive acquisition tactics
without a clear understanding of breakeven points.
Figure 2: Search volumes around UK election betting since 2009
Historic Search Trends
120
100
80
60
40
[uk election betting]
2015-03
2014-11
2015-01
2014-09
2014-07
2014-05
2014-03
2013-11
2014-01
2013-09
2013-07
2013-05
2013-03
2012-11
2013-01
2012-09
2012-07
2012-05
2012-03
2011-11
2012-01
2011-09
2011-07
2011-05
2011-03
2011-01
2010-11
2010-09
2010-07
2010-05
2010-03
2009-11
2010-01
2009-09
0
2009-07
20
Having taken a close look at the
figures and trends, we’re excited about
the opportunity the UK election presents
for sportsbook acquisition. Like with
any emerging trends, a lot of the insights
are based on first adopters and only time
will tell whether the momentum will be
enough to push political bets further into
the mainstream. Even with an expected
75,000 people betting on the elections, it
nevertheless gives rise to an interesting
conundrum: unlike the form of race horses
for example, punters in this instance can
directly impact the outcome by effectively
voting their bet when they go to the ballot
box. With candidates already having been
spotted introducing betting odds into their
campaign marketing and rhetoric, it will
be very interesting to see to what extent
the rise of political betting will impact
the prospects of politicians and voting
outcomes come May 2015.
With over seven years of
digital experience, six of
those in biddable media,
MANUEL BERNDORFLER
is the Director of Search at
The Media Image. In this role, he
runs a team of 35, ensuring best
practice implementation across PPC
and real-time bidding. Manuel has
spent the last four years specialising
in the gaming vertical, working
collaboratively with some of the top
global sportsbook, casino and affiliate
advertisers such as Gala Coral,
Ladbrokes and CasinoChoice.co.uk.
Source: Internal Google data
iGB Affiliate Issue 50 APR/MAY 2015
37