CHAIRMAN'S MESSAGE
Dear Members and Friends,
For a brief space of a month or so, the novel Coronavirus and its ever-increasing variants had to make way for another new development: Aukus, a security pact between Australia, the UK and US which will give Australia the capability to build nuclear-powered submarines. What troubles many countries is the way in which Aukus was announced. For what has been described as the “most significant security arrangement between Australia, the UK and US since World War Two, it had a surprisingly low-key introduction.
Aukus has serious implications and attendant risks. Some analysts argue that it has a colonial-era feel to it, and see it as binding Australia more firmly to the US and UK while distancing it from its immediate Asian neighbours. But the greater risk may lie in the provocation it offers to China, as the pact will see Australia increasing its nuclear capability, and perpetuating a Western-dominated narrative of regional order. This could, in turn, result in marginalising the South and Southeast Asian nations that Australia professes to support with its enhanced maritime capability.
The fallout has, in fact, already started. Because it will be availing itself of UK/US technology, Australia cancelled its US$37 billion deal for French diesel-powered submarines – and France was furious, because it found out about the pact only a few hours ahead of the public announcement! These regional developments appear to be gathering steam. Russia has intimated that this may be a good time for it to offer its submarines to its allies, although it is unclear whether this is the beginning of another war by proxy, or if Russia is just leveraging on opportunities brought about by new risks.
Elsewhere in the world, other countries are opening up, some after long and painful pandemic lockdowns. While most populations were grateful to finally be out and about, there were complaints about overly-rapid lifting of restrictions. Norway, usually calm and collected in the face of adversity, actually experienced violent clashes, brawls and sundry disturbances as people celebrated the end of pandemic restrictions. The government’s announcement that restrictions would be scrapped, overnight, took Norwegians by surprise and chaos ensued in many major cities.
Businesses, overwhelmed by the sudden surge in customers, were angry that they had not been given advance warning. It would seem that there is risk in any means employed, when a country tries to revert to normalcy after the pandemic. This underscores the need for careful planning and consideration of risk so as to limit the uncertainty and disruption that will inevitably linger even after the worst pandemic panic subsides. Countries are still finding their respective ways of going back to business as usual. There is no one-size-fits-all solution. Some may be too fast; some too slowly; and some, like Russia, may even be able to capitalise on it.
RAMESH PILLAI
Chairman of the Board
of Governors, IERP®
1 The IERP® Monthly Newsletter September - November 2021