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Part 4 : Factors that will shape Macau ’ s future ICE365 Macau report
FACTORS THAT WILL SHAPE MACAU ’ S FUTURE
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CONSIDERING THE APPETITE to invest in Macau remains strong , and a population that reached 1.4 billion in 2019 is on its doorstep , it would be easy to suggest that the SAR simply has to wait out Covid-19 before returning to normal .
However , there are a number of significant potential changes that could be seen as threats or unknown variables that may impact its future prosperity .
NEW HORIZONS
For example , nearby countries such as the Philippines , Singapore and ( eventually ) Japan are developing the sort of integrated resorts that were once only found in Macau . Japan , where the government is working through the selection process to identify three sites for integrated resorts , has been talked up as potentially shooting beyond most casino markets to become the secondlargest in the world after the SAR , and above Las Vegas .
However , that in itself remains to be seen . The likes of Wynn Resorts , Galaxy Gaming and Las Vegas Sands have all pulled out of the process to build one of the facilities . Analyst estimates for the size of the Japanese market have also declined , from CLSA ’ s $ 40bn projection in 2014 , to Morgan Stanley ’ s $ 15bn prediction in April 2018 , to Sanford Bernstein ’ s $ 8bn GGR figure from August 2019 .
Tash believes Japan will do “ phenomenally ” in terms of gaming revenue , but will ultimately benefit Macau . He predicts that the three properties constructed will prompt the SAR ’ s concessionaires to upgrade their properties , in a bid to keep pace with new venues in other markets .
The likes of Singapore and Manila , Macau ’ s current closest competitors in the region , only generate around $ 4bn in gaming revenue , while Korea ’ s casinos are foreigner-only , making them too quiet for the Chinese consumer .
ICE365 Macau report