as a result, attention was deflected away from
References
the hard work of hundreds of scientists. Even to
this day, many scientists cite ACIA 2004, not ACIA
2005. Furthermore, there was confusion over the
authorship of the technical report, and many different citations can be found in the literature. For
1
Huntington, H., T.V. Callaghan, S.H. Fox, and I. Krupnik
(2004). Matching Traditional and Scientific Observations
to Detect Environmental Change: A Discussion on Arctic
Terrestrial Ecosystems. Ambio Special Report 13: 18-23.
example, some citations give the overall reviewers
2
the distinction of authors or editors. Fortunately,
H. Marchant, T.D. Prowse, H. Vilhja´lmsson, and J.E. Walsh
lessons have been learned and the excellent sci-
(2007). ‘Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic),’ in M.L. Par-
ence dominates.
ry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J van der Linden, and C.E.
What has changed in the science? The ACIA findings, often including predictions based on first principles, are still highly relevant and are often cited.
Anisimov, O.A., D.G. Vaughan, T.V. Callaghan, C. Furgal,
Hanson, eds., Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the
fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel
on climate change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University
Press.
Many of the predictions published in 2005 are now
being confirmed by observation. However, a better
understanding of variability—in processes in space
and time—has become apparent since ACIA. More
intense and more frequent extreme events such
as mid-winter thaws, and tundra fires are being
recorded, and there is a growing realization that biological processes such as the greening of the Arctic vary from location to location and even within
catchments. There is also growing awareness that
the impacts of increased UV-B radiation in the Arctic are less dramatic than many impacts of climate
warming. ACIA developed a successful scaling
approach, from circumarctic models, through regional assessments, to local case studies, and this was
an important development for current down-scaling
studies to provide detailed predictions of climate
change and its impacts at scales appropriate for
the development of adaptation strategies by Arctic
residents.
ACIA is a great credit to IASC, the Arctic Council, the
ACIA Coordinator and his team, and all the participants. Its legacy is already immense and will continue to grow. Drafting personal perspectives and
recollections of the process and working with IASC
and AMAP has been an honor.
In summary, it was noted by many that ACIA was
the first comprehensive researched, fully referenced, and independently reviewed evaluation of
Arctic climate change and its impacts for the region
and the world.
50
00
02 IASC Initiatives
3
ACIA (2005). Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cam-
bridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1042p.
4
Hassol, S.J. (2004). Impacts of a Warming Arctic. Cam-
bridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 139p.