[ materials ]
The impact of thrifting and recycling on PEM capacity , based on 1.5 tonnes p . a . iridium supply
50 % thrift by 2030 ( no recycling ) 80 % thrift by 2030 ( no recycling ) 80 % thrift by 2030 including recycling Approx PEM share of capacity (%)
|
1400 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
1200 |
|
|
|
|
|
Installed PEM capacity ( GW ) |
1000
800
600
400
|
25 |
40 |
40 |
35
20
|
15
10
|
|
200 |
|
|
|
10 |
|
0 2020 2030 2040
2050
Source : Hydrogen Council , JM analysis
Projected cumulative PEM capacity with consumption limited to 1.5 tonnes of primary iridium per year , using the Hydrogen Council 1.5 ° C scenario
hoped ? The answer is yes – if we maximise the efficiency with which we use the metal , and if we recycle .
To illustrate the power of these two drivers , let ’ s look at a theoretical case where just 1.5 tonnes per year of iridium is available to be used in PEM electrolysis ( this is only around 20 % of annual mined production , so a realistic assumption ). How much PEM capacity could we build up within that constraint ?
Today ’ s technology uses around 400 kg per gigawatt of PEM capacity , so 1.5 tonnes doesn ’ t buy you a lot of gigawatts . The blue lines on the chart show the impact of progressive thrifting : reduce the metal per gigawatt by 80 % by 2030 and you can build 60 % more capacity than if you only halve your metal requirement by 2030 ( and our projection assumes continued thrifting to 2050 ). Add recycling to that , with an assumption that it happens in ‘ closed loop ’, so the iridium is retained within this industry , and we see a growth curve that gives over 2.5 times more capacity by 2050 than with thrifting alone .
In this exercise , even within an applied constraint of just 1.5 tonnes per year of primary iridium and using an ambitious scenario for hydrogen uptake , PEM can take market share of 40 %, and achieve an installed capacity of over 1,000 GW by 2050 ( based on the Hydrogen Council scenario and JM analysis ).
There is one more thing to say about efficiency . Formulating more effective catalysts , more efficient membranes , and tuning the way they are assembled into catalyst coated membranes ( CCMs ) will increase overall system performance , so that not only will less iridium be used per gigawatt , but each gigawatt will be able to produce more hydrogen , boosting the efficiency of our raw materials use even more .
PGM for resilient supply chains
This is the power of the PGMs : they need only be used in small quantities to deliver a powerful technological impact . They are precious metals , and their price reflects that , but it is exactly this value that ensures they are
18 Hydrogen Tech World | Issue 7 | December 2022