These intentions arose from the fact that the work was undertaken by the Institute for Environmental
Strategies with the assistance of the United Nation’s Environment Program. The report was the output
of a survey that was sent in 2017 to over 1,500 persons. Each had published one or more articles in at
least one of seven futures-oriented journals. 2 Such persons were deemed to be “experts.” 202 responses
were received, of these 137 responses were deemed to be valid. The original survey was included in the
report.
The respondents were asked three main questions in order to identify:
1. Three significant changes in society to 2050. The six categories of such changes were offered. 3
2. Two significant changes in lifestyle to 2050. The categories of such changes were specified. 4
3. Significant changes to a stakeholder. Again, the categories, in this case of stakeholders, were
given. 5
The findings are set out in four sections:
An initial Summary and Chapter 6 set out the main conclusions the authors drew from the data and
suggested a way forward. Note that the bold words are in the original.
An Opportunity Missed:
A REVIEW OF SOCIETY AND LIFE-
STYLES IN 2050: INSIGHTS FROM A
GLOBAL SURVEY OF EXPERTS 1
Reviewed by Ruben Nelson
Executive Director, Foresight Canada
It is not news to any professional in the fields of futures research and strategic foresight that our
workspace is not yet coherent; that it is still a bit of a dog’s breakfast. Given our present state of affairs,
this new report by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies in Japan will fit right in. On the one
hand, it makes some assertions to which we as professionals should attend and digest. On the other,
the report’s methodology is too thin to demand much of our attention.
I shall explain.
As stated on the original survey, the aim of the work was “to collect the opinions of (future-oriented)
researchers and practitioners to understand current thinking on how changes in society from now to
2050 could shape people’s daily living across the globe (p. 58).” 1 The Report stated the objective was
“to provide an overview of expected lifestyle changes” (p. 19). The authors saw “the report as a starting
point for future efforts and deliberations over the linkages between foresight studies and sustainable
lifestyles (p. 19).”
1 Material in italics is drawn verbatim from the report.
50
HUMAN FUTURES
This report offered three overarching observations. The first is that the rate of change in both
physical infrastructure and people’s norms would accelerate due to technological disruption. The
second broad observation is that future society will very likely face more constraints compared
to today due to ecological pressures, widened inequality and population increase. Third, expert
insights show widening gaps between aspirations of individuals (what people want) and the
reality in the foresighted future (what people will have). While individuals could increasingly
internalise environmental concerns and focus on wellbeing, the context of widening socioeconomic
inequality and uncertainty in a rapidly changing world would likely direct people to develop
survivalist mindsets at the expense of others (p. 10).
The report also noted that: None of the above is certain, as these are not predictions but rather
interpretations of possibilities (p. 10). Chapter 3 classified 6 the significant changes expected in the
broader society (culture and social norms, governance, economy, technology and innovation,
demography, environment and natural resources) identified from the expert survey. The core finding
was that the majority of the respondents believed that:
As a result of increased consumption, population growth and urbanization, and the pressure
from natural resource use, the consequences of climate change could become catastrophic.
They believe that despite promising advances and innovations in sustainable technologies, the
ecosystem could eventually be overwhelmed by climate change and lead to environmental
conditions beyond saving. With economic growth as one of the only measures of national success,
attempts to mitigate environmental degradation and climate change have been insufficient and
unlikely to become much more coordinated in the increasingly fragmented and divided world (p.
23).
2 Journal of Futures Studies (300 experts), Technological Forecasting and Social Change (300 experts), Futures (300 experts),
World Futures: The Journal of New Paradigm Research (100 experts), International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy (100
experts), International Journal of Forecasting (50 experts), Risk Analysis (50 experts).
3 From now until 2050, what are possible significant changes in society in areas such as Culture and Social Norms, Demography,
Economy, Environment and Natural Resources, Governance Structure, Technology and Innovation, and other areas (p. 61)?
4 We would like to know about possible changes in daily living for individuals and households in 2050. Please select two
domains from below that could likely change the most compared with today.
Domains offered: Food, Mobility, Housing, Education, Work, Leisure, Consumption of Manufactured goods, Health, Social
Connections/Relationships, Other (p. 61).
5 Which of the following stakeholders could have the most significant changes to their role in society as compared with today?
Stakeholders offered: Civil Society, Governments, Households, Private Sector, Research Communities, Other (p. 62).
6 It is important to note that the study simply reported on and classified the data it received from its survey. No attempt was
made to engage the data by interpreting it or relating to the finds of other studies. For example, note the often used phrase “the
majority of respondents believe that…”
HUMAN FUTURES
51