Forecasts for
twenty cases
spanning the world
and the levels:
Islamic State
Diagnosis
Baghdad
1258
Sykes-Picot 1916
Balfour
1917
Istanbul
1918
Caliphate 1922
Wars 1991 onward
Prognosis
A new caliphate
Islam mandated measured revenge
Terrorism
Western preventive war
State terrorism
Therapy
Use military for defense only not for
attack Negotiate Riyadh space for
Israel Compensate for state terrorism
USA-all over
Diagnosis
Divine mandate
Coperland
Imperial global structure
World currency de-/inflation
Prognosis
US empi e decline and fall by 2020
Losing last fight to keep
empire; particularly US$
China preferred
Therapy
Secularization
A normal country lifting the
bottom 70% up MEXICAN
Basket wiith US$
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The Peace versus Violence-War
Dialectic to 2050: 20 Cases
Islam vs. West: counter-cyclical, Muslim
togetherness-sharing expanding, Western
loneliness-bureaucracy contracting; conversion
to Islam and West building togetherness-sharing.
Islami State and Caliphate base don imams
cleanse Islam of the West reaching Mecca.
NATO-USA vs. SCO: no world war,
NATO dissolving, SCO not.
West vs. Russia: no war, EU-Russia
European House unifying.
First World vs. Third World, “North-South”: the
last will be the first; Africa and Latin America
Caribbean matching Europe and USA.
West vs. Eurasia-SCO, “West-East”: Eurasia
penetrating and dominating West like China
USA, not vice versa; dominion, not war.
Israel vs. Palestine-Arab State: An Israel for
Jews only will not survive; multi-national
Israel as tolerant to Muslims-Arabs as
they to Jews and Christians as People
of the Book, with Jews all over, will.
Japan-USA vs. Russia-Two Chinas-Two Koreas
over Islands: violence-war likely unless shared
ownership of islands and profit is practiced.
China vs. ASEAN in the South China Sea: war
likely unless US aircraft carriers are withdrawn;
sharing ownership, fisheries, and profit.
North Korea vs. the USA: war likely unless peace
treaty, normalization with North Korea and a
nuclear-free Korean peninsula are practiced.
M AY 2 0 1 8
Ukrainian “on the border”
Diagnosis
West-East
395
Schism
1056
Massacred by Stalin, Hitler
One State with two nations;
Ukranian_Uniate Russian-Orthodox
Crimea: a 1954 gift recovered
Prognosis
Will not work as unitary state
Will not work with a president
from one nation
Internal war, external
intervention.
Therapy
Federation with two nations;
One close to EU
One to Russia
Gas for trade Cabinet with 3, 5, 7
members rotating presidency
Neutrality
Israel-Palestine
Diagnosis
Divine mandate
Coperland;
Colonial structure on Arab lands
Peace through security
Prognosis
Expansion
Terrorism
State terrorism (Gaza)
Therapy
Secularization
Accept Riyadh with some swaps 1:
Palestine fully recognized 2: states
6: states MEC 20: states OSAWA
Security through peace
Source: Johan Galtung
Talk at CMI Bergen,
Tuesday 21-04-2015
HUMAN FUTURES
USA: one country among others but focussed
on Whom to blame, with anti-Semitism; new
domestic-world politics and Deep scripts coming.
EU: multi-speed with the euro as
common, not a single currency.
SCO: will cover most of the Asian
continent, blend with Eurasia.
UK: will Split into Anglo-Saxon England, Celtic
Wales, Scotland, Ireland, and the islands,
in a Confederation of the British Isles.
Russia: compensating for “unequal treaties”
with dynamic Chinese immigration, making
Russia grow as part of Eurasia, with violence.
China: aging, will be overtaken by Africa as it
passed the mini/China-Japan “dragons” that
had overtaken Japan overtaking the USA.
States except the most significant
yielding to regions-local authorities:
with a United Regions; United Nations
with no veto power leaving the USA.
Ability to handle fault-line conflicts inside
societies: use of human rights for equality
across and democracy for shared decisions.
Ability to handle conflicts between-inside
persons: so low that it will improve linking
good, less violence linking bad-bad.
Ability to handle conflict: so low that it
will improve, first step seeing conflict as
incompatible goals, as something to be solved.
Ability to reconcile trauma: so low that it will
improve, first step sharing narratives of what
happened, wishing the violence undone.
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