Governing the Future
Integrating Futures Studies and Policy Studies
for 21st Century Higher Education
by Amy L Fletcher Ph.D.
F
utures Studies as a contemporary discip-
line began in the Cold War (1945 – 1989).
First-generation futurists such as Herman
Kahn, then at the RAND Corporation, were
preoccupied with potential catastrophic sce-
narios relating to the possibility of global ther-
monuclear war. By the 1970s, futurism took
another turn in the spotlight as a consequence
of the energy crisis and the broader political
and economic turmoil of the era. Companies
such as the Shell Corporation, as well as natio-
nal governments ranging from Finland to New
Zealand to the United States, either integrated
foresight and futures methods into organizatio-
nal processes or created stand-alone research
units or agencies tasked with systematically
‘standing in the future.’
Today, foresight and futures studies are again
taking centre-stage in a variety of organiza-
tional, national and global contexts, as corpo-
rations, communities and governments seek
to navigate existential challenges such as the
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April 2019
biodiversity crisis, climate change, globalization,
rising insecurity, and terrorism. The variable of
disruptive technological change — in which ad-
vanced digital, bio and cognitive technologies
create new products, upend traditional markets,
and generate both new opportunities and threats
for human well-being — is also a major influence
on the search for consultative and robust met-
hods for considering the medium to long-term
future. Though policy studies and futures studies
would seem inextricably linked in this search for
sustainable real-world futures, the two discipli-
nes have mostly advanced on parallel tracks. It
is often the case that futures studies enthusiasts
in the social sciences have to repeatedly explain
what futures studies is or fight the ingrained
social scientific ethos that while rigorous expla-
nation is possible, prospective analysis is not. A
notable exception is the Hawaii Center for Futures
Studies, located in the Department of Political
Science at the University of Hawaii at Manoa.
Ergo, I would like to assert that a conscious effort
to bring together the best of policy studies and
futures studies could produce multiple advanta-
ges to both scholars and practitioners. It would
also enable better expert advice to real-world po-
licy-makers and much more effective community
consultation. This will likely require more effort
and professional risk initially from the futures
studies side of the relationship, insofar as policy
studies and political science are far more estab-
lished scholarly disciplines and thoroughly integ-
rated in the Academy—though economists may
not always agree. One key early step would be
to do a thorough stock-take of the linkages that
already exist, in terms of initiatives, programmes
and the published literature. I will be embarking
on such a systematic overview in the second half
of 2019 and invite potentially interested parties
to contact me to discuss ways of sharing and
publicizing this work. Beyond this, some brave
souls may want to find openings in professional
annual meetings, such as those sponsored by
the American Political Science Association or the
Association for Public Policy Analysis and Mana-
gement, wherein futures-oriented policy topics —
particularly those that deploy either quantitative
or quite robust qualitative methods — could find
a sympathetic panel. Alternatively, it may be that
we need to reinforce our own networks in order to
explore full panel proposals.
Finally, the specific use of foresight tools as a
form of experiential teaching holds great promi-
se for both policy studies and futures studies. I
have the privilege of teaching an Introduction to
public policy course (undergraduate), a course on
science, technology, and health (upper-division),
and a postgraduate course on science, techno-
logy and environmental policy at the University
of Canterbury. Over the last three years, I have
used an in-class scenario exercise in each of
these to provide students with background in the
concepts, theory and practice of community con-
sultation. This started quite modestly, but is now
worth up to 20 percent of the grade. The exerci-
se requires the students to agree on a topic and
timeframe, jointly prepare a briefing book of basic
background facts, and then divide into four teams
to go through a scenario-building process based
on the two key drivers that the class prioritized. I
report back at a subsequent class on the major
conclusions reached and on how the students
might then use public policy tools to maximize
the chances of reaching the preferred future.
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