Enter
But Rojas and his coauthors lay
out their case in a research paper,
in which they describe how they
painstakingly analyzed 542,969
tweets about Democratic or Republican candidates who ran in
2010. These were all sorted into
specific races, and the percentage of tweets that mentioned each
candidate was calculated. When
this calculation, termed “tweet
share,” was matched up between
opponents, the “tweet share” victor matched the winner in “404
out of 406 competitive races,”
Rojas writes. This was, he says, “a
strong correlation.”
Correlation does not imply...
what was it again?
In Rojas’ mind, what he’s stumbled upon is revolutionary because
it’s inexpensive, and polling is not.
Furthermore, Rojas asserts that
polling “favors the established candidates” and pays “disproportionate attention to ‘big’ races.”
Some congressional races are
never polled. Social media analysis can be used to systematically
gather data on any race at any
time. Thus, people in smaller
states no longer need to rely on
polling organizations for information. A single citizen can harvest
social media data and learn about
LOOKING FORWARD
IN ANGST
HUFFINGTON
08.25.13
‘Modern politics
happens when somebody
comments on Twitter
or links to a campaign
through Facebook,’
he writes, adding, ‘this
new world will undermine
the polling industry.’”
the election in his or her area.
Terrific, I guess? I mean, as near
as I can tell, a single citizen can
access lots of polling data, too. Besides, one big reason that some
congressional races are never polled
is that some congressional races
aren’t much of a race.
Here’s where I pass the mic to
political analyst St Յ