Voices
anxiety is high, and the risk of misinterpretation is far from trivial.
To put all this into perspective,
it is important to be clear about
the country’s past. Here are four
factors may be particularly relevant for what is currently happening there.
1. EGYPT’S INCOMPLETE REVOLUTION. The first popular uprising
two-and-a-half years ago (the one
that ousted President Mubarak)
proved insufficient to place Egypt
firmly on a path that ultimately
fulfills the revolution’s legitimate
objectives of “bread, dignity and
social justice.”
Political parties scrambled to
get organized, with many running
out of time (and organizational
capacity) as they were starting
from scratch. Sequencing the key
anchors of a successful democratic
transition — a robust constitution,
and free and fair elections for both
parliament and the presidency —
was mishandled. And some army
generals gave the impression that
they could be interested in more
than just transitional rule.
As such, the initial phase under
the SCAF (Supreme Council of the
Armed Forces), while hopeful at
first, gave way to disappointment.
MOHAMED
A. EL-ERIAN
2. MESSY INITIAL CONDITIONS. The
January 2011 uprising was fueled
by anger about institutions and
an economic system that were
coopted by a privileged few rather than serving the country as a
whole. These were long-standing
and deeply-entrenched problems.
And, inevitably, the new Egypt
found itself saddled with all the
resulting challenges — past, present and future.
Durable solutions are inherently
detailed and complex. They require
a multi-year focus, specialized
knowledge and hands on management. And the tasks become even
more intricate in a turbulent global
context involving a debt crisis and
recession in Europe, as well as
anemic growth and unusual political polarization in the U.S.
3. ACCENTUATING THE DIFFICULTIES.
Poor economic and political mana vV