THE OSCAR ISSUE / HUFFINGTON / 02.10-17.13
v
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david rothschild
JESSE GRANT/GETTY IMAGES
what is predictive
of the oscars?
SPENT SEVERAL weeks this winter immersed in spreadsheets full of historical Oscar data to explore methods of
using fundamentals to predict Oscar winners. Fundamental models work really well in forecasting political
elections, where significant categories of data include:
past election results, incumbency, presidential approval, ideology, economic indicators and biographical
data. Yet, fundamental models are much less efficient
in forecasting awards shows, where they would include
categories such as: studio inputs, box office success,
Final Oscar
ballots are
prepared
before
being
sent off to
judges.