leading to reelection. Obama
might compensate for soft support among men by boosting
his showing among women.
He could lose Florida, which
he won narrowly last time, but
still win Ohio, where the auto
bailout has generated jobs. He
might lose Ohio and Florida,
but still ride to victory via a
strong performance in Western
states such as Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona.
But most of the available
pathways share one essential component: Obama needs
a dominant showing among
young voters.
“The youth vote is incredibly important, and particularly
for Obama,” says Mark Penn,
the pollster who served as Bill
Clinton’s data guru, and Hillary Clinton’s chief strategist on
her bid for the White House. “It
was his core base in 2008.”
In three states, Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina, voters under 30 decisively tipped
the scales in Obama’s favor,
turning what would have been
defeats into victories. North
Carolina presents the clearest
case. George W. Bush carried the
state by more than 12 percentage points in both 2000 and
2004. Among voters 30 and
over, Obama lost to the Republi-
can nominee, Sen. John McCain,
acc