Huffington Magazine Issue 1 | Page 27

Voices MOHAMED A. EL-ERIAN HUFFINGTON 06.17.12 The Economy Will Do More Than Define the Elections MOST POLITICAL OBSERVERS agree on two things: The economy will be one of the major defining topics in this year’s presidential campaign, and probably the overwhelming one; and to boost his re-election prospects, President Obama needs it to stop weakening ­— if not improve (as reflected in robust job creation, higher labor income, and enhanced consumer and business confidence). It should therefore come as no surprise that the recentlyreleased monthly employment report, which disappointed across the board, generated such opposing political narratives. For the Republicans, it was yet another indication that the Obama administration is unable to deliver a robust recovery despite trillions of dollars of deficits, debt and money printing. For ILLUSTRATION BY MATTHEW HOLLISTER the Democrats, it was yet another reminder of the deep mess that Obama inherited back in January 2009 from his Republican predecessor, and the related inevitability of a protracted recovery. Looking forward, both parties are asking the same question: Was the May jobs report an aberration or does it point to a renewed slowing of the US economy that could even reignite talk of another recession? While volatile monthly numbers should never be taken as unambiguous signals, recent data do suggest that America’s employment machine has lost substantial Dr. El-Erian is CEO and coCIO of PIMCO