Voices
MOHAMED A.
EL-ERIAN
HUFFINGTON
06.17.12
The Economy Will
Do More Than Define
the Elections
MOST POLITICAL OBSERVERS
agree on two things: The economy
will be one of the major defining
topics in this year’s presidential
campaign, and probably the overwhelming one; and to boost his
re-election prospects, President
Obama needs it to stop weakening
— if not improve (as reflected in
robust job creation, higher labor
income, and enhanced consumer
and business confidence).
It should therefore come as
no surprise that the recentlyreleased monthly employment
report, which disappointed across
the board, generated such opposing political narratives.
For the Republicans, it was
yet another indication that the
Obama administration is unable
to deliver a robust recovery despite trillions of dollars of deficits, debt and money printing. For
ILLUSTRATION BY MATTHEW HOLLISTER
the Democrats, it was yet another
reminder of the deep mess that
Obama inherited back in January
2009 from his Republican predecessor, and the related inevitability of a protracted recovery.
Looking forward, both parties are
asking the same question: Was the
May jobs report an aberration or
does it point to a renewed slowing
of the US economy that could even
reignite talk of another recession?
While volatile monthly numbers should never be taken as unambiguous signals, recent data do
suggest that America’s employment machine has lost substantial
Dr. El-Erian is
CEO and coCIO of PIMCO