I. Introduction
I. Introduction
Until now, the
Government
has focused its
attention on rural
poverty, which is
more widespread
and deeper than
urban poverty.
But there are
plausible reasons
to fear a future
upsurge of
migration of rural
households to
urban areas, and
the increase of
urban poverty
8
As of late 2009, Uzbekistan appeared to have escaped the worst
of the global financial and economic crisis. Yet, while the country’s
economy fared better than that of other transition economies, the
full impact of the crisis could still hit Uzbekistan in 2010 secondarily
through the effects of the crisis on Russia and other CIS countries.
Moreover, the medium-term prospects in Uzbekistan for generating
broad-based productive employment remained significantly
constrained.
The more capital-intensive sectors of the economy,
particularly the fuel and energy sectors, are the engines of prosperity.
Continued growth is still contingent on an increase in commodities
exports, but international commodities prices are likely to be subject
to considerable volatility.
This Policy Brief focuses on the impact of such financial and
economic trends on urbanization in Uzbekistan and on urban poverty
in particular. Our hypothesis is that a constellation of factors could lead
in the medium term to a more rapid, and unplanned, rise in urbanization
and an attendant spread of urban poverty.
Until now, the government has focused its attention – for good
reasons – on rural poverty, which is more prevalent and deeper than
urban poverty. But there are plausible reasons to fear an eventual
upsurge in migration of rural households to urban areas and an
attendant increase in urban poverty.
The first reason is that there is a relative shortage of productive
employment in rural areas, particularly after the elimination of shirkats 1
and there has been a consolidation of land by larger private farms.
A second reason could be the pressure exerted by demographic
factors, such as the need to integrate many new workers into the
labour force every year in addition to the growing number of
workers unable to make a living in the rural economy. Indeed, the
rural population in Uzbekistan continues to grow more rapidly than
the urban population, with estimates by the Center for Economic
Research projecting that the rural population will grow to over 22
million by 2025 (see Figure 1).
The third reason could be attributable to impending adverse
environmental changes. Arable land is already in short supply in
Uzbekistan and a significant share of it needs to be rehabilitated. But
there is also the growing danger of a widespread shortage of water for
agricultural purposes. During the last 25 years, for example, irrigated