IV. Urban and Rural Poverty Trends
IV. Urban and Rural Poverty Trends
A. National Trends
The trends in
urban poverty
over the two
periods were
very different.
Between 2000-1
and 2004, urban
poverty decreased
dramatically,
i.e., by over 32%.
But progress
slowed drastically
between 2004
and 2007: the
decline was a little
over 6%
What do the available statistics tell us about the recent evolution
of poverty in Uzbekistan? As one can see in Table 3, which shows
the trends in national, rural and urban poverty between 2000-01 and
2007 as based on data from the yearly Household Budget Survey, the
poverty rate dropped by one-quarter between 2000-01 and 2007.– a
commendable achievement in such a short time. There was an even
faster reduction in urban poverty, which decreased by almost 37%,
although the decrease in rural poverty by about 19% was much less.
We divide the period between 2000-01 and 2007 in half in order to
determine whether progress against poverty has differed from earlier to
later periods. Between 2000-01 and 2004, nationwide poverty decreased
by about 17%; between 2004 and 2007, though, it declined by a little less
than 10%. Progress against poverty thus slowed in the mid-2000s, despite
the upturn in economic growth, which had reached at least 7% by 2004.
Table 3. Poverty Trends
2000-01 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Total Poverty 31.5 26.5 27.2 26.1 25.8 24.9 23.6
Urban Poverty 27.8 21.8 22.0 18.8 18.3 17.9 17.6
Rural Poverty 33.6 29.4 28.7 30.3 30.0 28.8 27.1
Note: the 2000-01 estimate is from World Bank 2007; 2002-2005 estimates are from the Welfare Improve-
ment Strategy; and 2006-2007 estimates are provisional.
How have trends in urban and rural poverty differed? Progress against
rural poverty was similar across both periods: between 2000-01 and 2004,
it declined by almost 10% and between 2004 and 2006 by a little over 10%.
However, the trends in urban poverty over the two periods were very different.
Between 2000-01 and 2004, urban poverty decreased dramatically, i.e., by over
32%. But progress slowed drastically between 2004 and 2007: the decline was
a little over 6%.
Such a slow reduction in urban poverty suggests that economic growth,
though more rapid in the mid-2000s, was not benefiting many urban centres
in the country. While the average growth of GDP per capita during 2001-04
18