HP Innovation Journal Issue 15: Summer 2020 | Page 24
THOUGHT LEADER: POST-COVID ERA
by observing fundamental attitudinal and
behavioral shifts and creating branching
trees of potential ramifications. Fundamental
shifts among consumers could include
more time at home, more emphasis on
hygiene and health, or greater emphasis
on family security. Producer shifts
could include embracing remote working,
streamlining operations, decentralizing
supply chains, and emphasizing crisis preparedness
and systems resilience. Each of
these basic shifts has manifold potential
consequences. For example, the potential
implications of increased time at home are
shown at right.
It is too soon to know which of these
possibilities will become firmly established.
However, organizations can look to China
for hints about which behaviors might stick.
New infections in the country have slowed
dramatically, social restrictions are being
eased, and economic activity is restarting:
As of late May, power consumption had fully
recovered to last year’s levels, and movement
of people had recovered 80%.⁵
China has not returned to its pre-crisis
state, however. According to a BCG survey,
approximately half of Chinese consumers
say they plan to spend more on preventative
healthcare, vitamins and supplements, and
organic foods over the next six months.⁶
In contrast, more than one-third say they
plan to decrease spending on restaurants,
vacations, and tobacco products over the
same time frame. Such shifts are not guaranteed
to last—with the outbreak still
raging abroad and facing the possibility of a
rebound in infections, consumers are likely
still in a crisis mindset. Nevertheless, China
will provide signposts to the shape of the
post-crisis reality.
1. The Great Leveler (Scheidel, 2017)
2. “Shocking Labor Supply: A Reassessment of the
Role of World War II on U.S. Women’s Labor
Supply” (Goldin and Olivetti, 2013)
3. Alibaba: The House That Jack Ma Built (Clark,
2016)
4. “What drives innovation? Evidence from economic
history” (Taalbi, 2017)
5. Power consumption measured by daily coal
consumption at four major plants; movement
of people and goods measured by average congestion
delay index in 10 major cities; source:
WIND
6. BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment survey,
March 12–16 (1,831 Chinese respondents)
POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS OF
SPENDING MORE TIME AT HOME
DIGITAL
COORDINATION
BANDWIDTH
COLLABORATION
PLATFORMS
SOFTWARE
PAINT
REFURBISHMENT
CARPENTRY
WORKING
FROM HOME
TRADITIONAL
OFFICE
HOME
SPACES
OFFICE
SPACES
EQUIPMENT
DESKS
COMMERCIAL
REAL ESTATE
PRINTERS
INNOVATION/ SUMMER 2020
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