HP Innovation Journal Issue 15: Summer 2020 | Page 24

THOUGHT LEADER: POST-COVID ERA by observing fundamental attitudinal and behavioral shifts and creating branching trees of potential ramifications. Fundamental shifts among consumers could include more time at home, more emphasis on hygiene and health, or greater emphasis on family security. Producer shifts could include embracing remote working, streamlining operations, decentralizing supply chains, and emphasizing crisis preparedness and systems resilience. Each of these basic shifts has manifold potential consequences. For example, the potential implications of increased time at home are shown at right. It is too soon to know which of these possibilities will become firmly established. However, organizations can look to China for hints about which behaviors might stick. New infections in the country have slowed dramatically, social restrictions are being eased, and economic activity is restarting: As of late May, power consumption had fully recovered to last year’s levels, and movement of people had recovered 80%.⁵ China has not returned to its pre-crisis state, however. According to a BCG survey, approximately half of Chinese consumers say they plan to spend more on preventative healthcare, vitamins and supplements, and organic foods over the next six months.⁶ In contrast, more than one-third say they plan to decrease spending on restaurants, vacations, and tobacco products over the same time frame. Such shifts are not guaranteed to last—with the outbreak still raging abroad and facing the possibility of a rebound in infections, consumers are likely still in a crisis mindset. Nevertheless, China will provide signposts to the shape of the post-crisis reality. 1. The Great Leveler (Scheidel, 2017) 2. “Shocking Labor Supply: A Reassessment of the Role of World War II on U.S. Women’s Labor Supply” (Goldin and Olivetti, 2013) 3. Alibaba: The House That Jack Ma Built (Clark, 2016) 4. “What drives innovation? Evidence from economic history” (Taalbi, 2017) 5. Power consumption measured by daily coal consumption at four major plants; movement of people and goods measured by average congestion delay index in 10 major cities; source: WIND 6. BCG COVID-19 Consumer Sentiment survey, March 12–16 (1,831 Chinese respondents) POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS OF SPENDING MORE TIME AT HOME DIGITAL COORDINATION BANDWIDTH COLLABORATION PLATFORMS SOFTWARE PAINT REFURBISHMENT CARPENTRY WORKING FROM HOME TRADITIONAL OFFICE HOME SPACES OFFICE SPACES EQUIPMENT DESKS COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE PRINTERS INNOVATION/ SUMMER 2020 22