HP Innovation Journal Issue 15: Summer 2020 | Page 23
NEW IDEAS
OFTEN EMERGE
OR ARE
DEVELOPED IN
RESPONSE TO
EXTREME NEEDS
ARISING DURING
A SOCIAL CRISIS.
increased by more than 50% compared with
pre-crisis levels. On the other hand, apparel
purchases have declined by more than 50%,
and travel and live entertainment spending
has nearly vanished.
We should not expect that all of these
shifts will stick, however. For example, there
was a marked reduction in air travel after the
9/11 attacks, but it returned to its previous
trend line within 15 months. Undoubtedly
we will see some consumption patterns
reverting to long-term trend lines, albeit
at different speeds. We must distinguish
between temporarily postponed, accelerated,
or disturbed consumption, and new,
more permanent patterns of consumption.
Furthermore, we should not expect
consumption to shift only between existing
products. New ideas often emerge
or are developed in response to extreme
needs arising during a social crisis.⁴ World
War II, for example, forced innovation or
accelerated development and commercialization
of the jet engine, pressurized
aircraft cabins, helicopters, atomic technology,
computers, synthetic rubber, rocketry,
radar, and penicillin, with lasting effects.
New needs born in our current crisis will
likely drive lasting innovation in other
areas, such as mass disease-testing technologies,
digital collaboration tools, or
affordable home office setups.
We should not, however, expect permanent
shifts to be easily discernible through
observation and analysis alone. We cannot
know for sure what shifts will persist until
after the crisis is over, by which time pioneers
will have already established leading
positions. Pioneers will not only adapt to
shifting needs, they will also proactively
shape perceived needs and outcomes
through innovation, education, and promotional
activities.
We can visualize the field of possibilities
PURCHASING PATTERNS SHIFTING
AS OUTBREAK PROGRESSES
PERCENT CHANGE IN SALES VS. PRE-CRISIS, US INDUSTRY VERTICALS
100
75
50
FOOD
DELIVERY
APPAREL AND
ACCESSORIES
DIY
AIRLINES
AMAZON
(EX WHOLE FOODS)
AWAY-FROM-HOME
ENTERTAINMENT
25
0
-25
-50
-75
Pre-crisis
(Dec–Jan)
19 Feb 26 Feb 4 Mar 11 Mar 18 Mar 25 Mar 01 Apr 08 Apr 15 Apr 22 Apr
WEEK END DATE
Source: BCG GAMMA analytics, Earnest Research credit card data as of 5/1/2020 and BCG estimates
INNOVATION/ SUMMER 2020
21