HP Innovation Journal Issue 09: Spring 2018 | Page 8

2 01 8 H P M E G AT R E N D S R E P O R T At the same time, we are going to see tremendous drags on the economy, including human and natural resource strains. The number of persons aged 60 or above is expected 5 to more than double by 2050 . This will lead to a decline in the number of workers per retiree, putting a strain on 6 productivity and output. Global public debt may near 95% of the gross domestic product. We will have significant new infrastructure maintenance costs, and the desires of the surging global middle class will drive resource shortages. 7 During this time period, a nearly 50% increase in global demand for product will require a fundamental shift in how we make, sell, work, extract, and manage resources. Our current products, processes, and rate of innovation will not be enough to make this happen in a sustainable way. Instead, we will need to push boundaries and further accelerate the speed of innovation. Our vision at HP is to create technology that makes life better for everyone, everywhere. To achieve this, we need to continually rise to the challenge as global citizens and push the boundaries of innovation to create a more efficient and fulfilling future. LOOKING BACK, TO LEAP AHEAD We are at the dawn of a new global industrial revolution. For centuries major technological advancement has fueled new industries, markets, and economies. The productivity gains unleashed by innovation freed workers to achieve greater production and take on new tasks and opportunities. If we look at the 1800s and early 1900s, the invention and mass adoption of steel and steam-powered engines are considered by many to be the building blocks of the Indus- trial Revolution. These innovations led to huge productivity gains and economic growth, by enabling factories to move from producing dozens of products a day to thousands. This pioneered faster and more efficient transportation. And it transitioned labor from man-powered to machine-pow- ered. All helping to grow the global economy to $1.2 trillion 8 in 1817. The 1900s brought new technological triggers for eco- nomic growth and efficiency gains with the adoption of petroleum, antibiotics, and electricity. While slow to scale, these innovations helped usher in new forms of heat, trans- portation, and extended life expectancy. It also catapulted the global economy to approximately $5 trillion 9 in 1917. 8 And as we move farther into the 2000s, we see three technological trends converging that, together, have the potential to generate the same kind of growth. BioConvergence The first trend is the intersection of biological, physical, and computing technologies known as BioConvergence. BioConvergence enables us to make things using the principles, materials, and processes of nature and the advancements in digital technology. This means creating new materials, substituting existing materials, and devel- oping new fabrication processes to make more efficient and resilient products. Indeed, sustainability concerns arising from our current production and consumption means necessitate such an approach. As an example, 75% 10 of elements of the periodic table are in a smartphone . Nature-inspired fabrication allows us to harness and mimic the natural processes and materials that surround us, ulti- mately leading to the creation of goods customized for local markets and demographics. Local, sustainable, and affordable production will improve the lives of people all over the planet. Innovation that taps the power of nature— literally—is already here in lithium-ion batteries made of 11 alfalfa seeds and pine resin . And we may one day see the 12 entire Internet backed up on a single gram of DNA . Frictionless Business Converging technologies will also help us gain efficiencies in how we do business and bring products to market. Over the next decade, various disruptive technologies, including Artificial Intelligence (AI), Blockchain, and the Inter- net of Things (IoT) will combine to transform business processes that have to date resisted the digital transforma- tion. Enabling transformation across business processes, ranging from faster-automated product creation through generative design, to streamlining procurement with smart contracts and autonomous negotiation, and reshaping how we sell and distribute products. This will allow for increasingly complex product bundling and assembly to occur closer and closer to the customer. An early example of this is Hema supermarkets in Beijing and Shanghai, where they provide a data-driven selection of fresh food to customers based on their loca- tions. With 3D printing, HP is laying the groundwork for