WHILE THE PRICES OF ELECTRIC TRUCKS ARE HIGHER THAN THOSE OF STANDARD ONES , THEY WILL SAVE FLEET OPERATORS MONEY IN THE LONG RUN BECAUSE OF MUCH LOWER MAINTENANCE AND FUEL COSTS .
THREE SCENARIOS FOR THREE MARKETS
To road map the dynamics of demand in the world ’ s biggest markets , BCG drew up three possibilities for each : laggard , target , and leadership roles .
EUROPE
Europe could turn into a green laggard if its targets for reducing vehicle emissions stay static at 30 % in 2030 . In that worst case , the demand for zero-emission powertrains will rise from 1 % in 2020 to just 25 % in 2030 . If Europe can deliver on its Green Deal , with emissioncut targets rising to around 50 % in 2030 , the demand for green trucks will rise to as much as 50 % of all the new ones sold . The Continent could even stay the green champion by increasing its emission-reduction targets further . The demand for zero-emission trucks would then shoot up to 65 % by 2030 , and 100 % of all the new commercial vehicles sold by 2035 .
UNITED STATES
The US could remain a green laggard , with its emissionreduction targets staying at the current level of 12 % a decade from now . If that happened , the demand for zeroemission vehicles would rise to just 15 % by 2030 . Of course , America could gradually step up its emission-cut targets , with several states pushing the use of green trucks , increasing the demand for zero-emission vehicles to 25 % by 2030 . And the US could become a green champion if the Biden administration , as it promised when it came to power , makes California ’ s emission goals the national standard . That alone would ensure that sales of zero-emission vehicles would top 50 % of the US market by 2030 .
CHINA
If the Chinese government doesn ’ t push the state-owned manufacturers , which are focused on reducing emissions from their diesel engines , to make more zero-emission vehicles , the latter ’ s share will rise from the current 1 % to just 10 % by 2030 . China ’ s carbon emissions won ’ t peak until the 2030s , so the state doesn ’ t see the need to cut emissions immediately . Tighter regulations and stricter implementation will cause the demand for zero-emission vehicles to rise to 20 % by 2030 . Promisingly , there ’ s been talk about China aspiring to become a green champion by developing a new set of emission regulations . With the country ’ s truck-makers , such as FAW , already kicking off the production of electric trucks , the demand forthem would then rise to as much as 40 % of the market by 2030 . stagnate even as competition increases , while new revenue sources will emerge for those that are looking for them .
To facilitate the transition to electric vehicles and still remain profitable , truck manufacturers will have to offer customers the charging infrastructure as well as deploy usage-based sales models , which will become part of their core business . Other service-oriented businesses around autonomous driving fleets and recycling batteries may also emerge by the end of this decade . By tapping into these new revenue pools , truck makers will be able to boost profits in the long run and improve on today ’ s single-digit margins .
After decades of trying to optimize the performance of internal combustion engines , commercial vehicle makers finally have no choice but to switch strategies . Many startups are poised to enter the zero-emission vehicle business , threatening the incumbents ’ leadership . After all , electric trucks are easier to manufacture than traditional ones , since electric powertrains need fewer moving parts than internal combustion engines . Moreover , the incumbents have created extensive supply chains that the new entrants , who are more familiar with electrical and electronic technologies , can tap into for mechanical components and sub-assemblies .
If the incumbents wish to survive , they must speed the development of zeroemission vehicles and scale their production so existing customers turn to them for a new generation of vehicles . Forging supplier relationships with digital hardware and software firms will be as important as building engineering capabilities . In addition , the leaders will have to develop new service- and customer-oriented business models , for which they will need to strike novel partnerships .
In 1896 , when Gottlieb Daimler invented the first truck , he named its rear-mounted , four-horsepower , two-cylinder internal combustion engine the Phoenix . More than 125 years later , the world ’ s commercial vehicle industry will now have to learn to survive without the internal combustion engine and rise — with green powertrains — like a phoenix from their past .
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