THOUGHT LEADER : COMMERCIAL TRANSPORTATION
CHANGE IS UNFOLDING at electrifying speed in the commercial vehicle industry , driving truck manufacturers the world over to transform themselves — quickly . Even before digital connectivity and autonomous driving technologies trigger tectonic changes , the launch of zero-emission vehicles is likely to disrupt the sector in the near future , over the next five to 10 years . Regulatory changes in most countries , the increasing competitiveness of “ green ” powertrains , and rising awareness of the implications of climate change are accelerating the industry ’ s migration to emission-free trucks .
It ’ s critical for medium- and heavy-duty vehicle manufacturers , as well as fleet operators , to manage their transition to a future powered by zero-emission engines , but it won ’ t be easy . Most incumbents face the dual challenge of ensuring that their existing businesses remain profitable even as they tackle the investment-heavy challenges of developing electric powertrains . A recent global study by BCG suggests that commercial vehicle manufacturers and fleet operators , as well as their ecosystem partners , would do well to buckle up , understand the road ahead , and use four new strategic levers to thrive sustainably tomorrow .
3.3 million
Global sales projections of medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles by 2030 .
The future and its drivers
Back-to-back crisis years , because of the COVID-19 pandemic and the global semiconductor shortage , have affected both the demand for , and the supply of , commercial vehicles . But several factors — the jerky return to economic normalcy last year , the growth of ecommerce , and the impending investments by several governments in infrastructure and
supply chain development — returned global vehicle sales to their traditional levels in 2021 . The recovery was driven mainly by the Chinese market , with Europe and the United States still suffering from the pandemicinduced recession .
Although the industry appears to be lumbering down the road to normalcy , commercial vehicle sales are likely to reach pre-COVID-19 levels only by 2025 . According to projections , global sales of medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles will cross 3.3 million units a year by 2030 , a compound annual growth rate of 2 %. Of that
Reprinted with permission © Boston Consulting Group 2022 . All rights reserved .
EXHIBIT 1
Green trucks are coming
In the 2020s , sales of zero-emission trucks will soar , especially in Europe , where they could exceed 50 % of sales by 2030 .
EU
2023 :
17-21 %
30-34 % 7-9 %
38-44 %
US
Fuel cell electric |
Natural gas ( not zero emission ) |
Battery electric |
ICE |
3-6 % 19-23 %
3-6 %
67-75 %
CHINA
4-6 % 13-17 %
16-21 %
58-65 %
number , 1.1 million vehicles will be sold in China , 500,000 in the US , and 400,000 in Europe — the world ’ s three biggest markets .
Importantly , economic policies and business economics will turbocharge the adoption of electric trucks in the largest markets . Sales of battery electric and fuel cell electric commercial vehicles will grow in all of them soon , according to our study , rising first in Europe and the United States , followed by China . ( Battery electric vehicles ( BEVs ) use only rechargeable battery packs , with no secondary source of propulsion . Fuel cell electric vehicles ( FCEVs ) use a fuel cell that generates electricity using oxygen from the air and compressed hydrogen — sometimes in combination with a small battery , or supercapacitor — to power its motor .)
In Europe , about 32 % of new commercial vehicles sold in 2030 will be battery electric and 19 % will be fuel cell electric , while the corresponding numbers in the US will be 21 % and 4 %, respectively , and in China , 15 % and 5 %. By 2030 , zero-emission commercial vehicles will capture a 28 % share — or 500,000 units — of the European , American , and Chinese markets combined , marking the beginning of an unprecedented global shift to green vehicles . ( See Exhibit 1 .)
Two forces , which are mutually reinforcing , are driving the adoption of green powertrains .
Green regulations
At the macro or policy level , both the European Union and the US are trying to tighten regulations on commercial vehicles powered by internal combustion engines and incentivize the adoption of zero- and low-emission trucks .
The European Green Deal announced in December 2019 , for instance , seeks to tighten Europe ’ s 2030 target for greenhouse gas emissions to 55 % of 1990 levels . In the case of trucks , we assume the EU will adopt rules like those for passenger vehicles and vans , aiming for a 50 % reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 2021 .
HP / INNOVATION / SUMMER 2022 20