How do I make the NHL? Every year the top draft prospects ask themselves this question as they gather in Toronto for the annual NHL combine. All summer long they have prepared themselves to show up at the combine in top shape, ready to compete for chance of being drafted and wearing the jersey of an NHL team.
Over the years the NHL combine has evolved from very basic level fitness testing to the dog and pony show it currently has become. So much is riding on picking solid prospects that teams send a battery of scouts, strength and conditioning coaches, psychologist’s, on-ice coaches and GM’s to evaluate prospects over a two day period. Not only are they looking for players to be physically ready to move to the next level, but they also get a feel for the players potential for future development.
While some analysts believe the NHL combine does not have a big impact a player’s draft position as teams generally have made up their minds by this time based on the scouting report, several studies show differently. In one study published in the Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research by Tarter et al 2009, they found that scores in the 90th percentile to be associated with a 72% chance for defensemen, and a 60% chance for forwards to play in the National Hockey League within the next 4 years. They concluded that it is possible to judge a player’s NHL potential using the combine.
Author’s Note: Here is the link to the study.
Having noted the above study, parts of the NHL combine are in question as one study in the Journal of Applied Physiology, Nutrition and Metabolism, Durocher et al 2010, found that the Wingate cycle ergometer test for VO2 max (the maximal capacity (the maximal capacity of a player’s body to transport and use oxygen during exercise) was poorly associated with the outcome of on-ice VO2 max testing. Essentially this means that a player who performs well on an exercise bike may not necessarily have the conditioning to perform well in on the ice during games.
Author’s Note: Here is the link to this study.
The problem with the current NHL combine however is that not all players will participate in the full testing protocols. The top three prospects this year Seth Jones, Nathan MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin will skip the physical testing aspect of the combine. For these highly ranked players their draft stock is high enough not to warrant a potential downgrade in draft order with subpar results. On the other end of the spectrum a lower ranked player may improve their draft order with a spectacular showing at the combine.
While initial success at the combine may or may not solidly predict future performance in the NHL as players must adjust to the rigors of the NHL game, the combine should be treated as metric upon which effectiveness can be evaluated. Teams looking to invest time and money into developing a draft prospect into a professional player who can earn a spot in the lineup are interested in physically capable players, both now and for the future. At the very least the combine helps round out the information on a particular player that is combined with their scouting report, psychological interviews and medical examination.
David Pollitt is internationally recognized as THE ice hockey dryland training expert. His site is DPHockey.com. His book can be found here. ◉