General manager Dave Nonis wasted no time putting his fingerprints on the Toronto Maple Leafs this off-season.
On June 23, he went out and acquired Jonathan Bernier for Ben Scrivens, Matt Frattin, a second round draft pick in either 2014 or 2015, and $500K in retained salary. It’s difficult to assess the trade as it remains to be seen whether Bernier is an upgrade over James Reimer, who recorded a .924 save percentage last season. While Bernier has the pedigree to develop into an elite goaltender, it’s irrelevant until there’s tangible evidence he can perform at that level in the NHL.
Nonis then acquired centre Dave Bolland at the 2013 NHL Entry Draft for a second and two fourth round draft picks. Bolland is not the first-line centre the Leafs covet, but he provides the bottom-six another defensive presence alongside Jay McClement.
Nonis then used the Leafs’ final compliance buyout on Mikhail Grabovski, joining former teammate Mike Komisarek in free agency. The question now is whom Nonis will target to step in as the first-line centre. Grabovski was tasked with tough, defensive minutes (his offensive zone start rate was a mere 36.7 per cent) but apparently that fell on deaf ears as management deemed him expendable.
It’s difficult to envision the Leafs somehow upgrading exponentially from the move, but here are some potential targets should Nonis pursue an upgrade via free agency or trade:
Stephen Weiss is one of the top centres available in free agency, which is sure to land him a lucrative deal. The issue is that he’s 30 years old and has a career-high 61 points. His best days are likely behind him and he’s generally a negative possession player, an area the Leafs must focus on if they wish to improve defensively. Furthermore, considering Weiss is one of the only skilled centres available, he will likely command a long-term deal that pays him anywhere between $5 and $6-million per season.
Mike Ribeiro and Derek Roy may also fit the bill as the Leafs’ first-line centre. Ribeiro is 33 years old and continues to produce, notching 314 points in his last 352 games. His possession numbers leave something to be desired, though, as they are consistently negative with high offensive zone starts (52 per cent last season). Roy, meanwhile, is an effective puck possession player and turned 30 years old two months ago. The diminutive centre notched 22 points in 30 games for the Dallas Stars last season before being shipped to the Vancouver Canucks.
If Nonis is true to his word and the Leafs opt to upgrade at centre via the trade route, there may not be a better option than Paul Stastny. With the salary cap decreasing to $64.3-million next season, Stastny’s $6.6-million cap hit is a detractor for most teams. The 27-year-old only has a year remaining on his current deal, however, and the Leafs have the cap space to accommodate him. This would net the Leafs a centre that is capable in both ends and is a decent puck carrier, a quality Tyler Bozak sorely lacks. The Avalanche would likely seek a package that includes a defenseman such as, say, pending RFA Cody Franson.
Up the middle isn’t the only area the Leafs wish to upgrade. Excluding Phil Kessel, the right wing position is skeletal. Right-winger David Clarkson has been linked to the Leafs and he’s certainly a Carlyle-type player. The 29-year-old adds a dose of truculence along with decent offensive production in sheltered minutes. In other words, he’s an effective third line winger capable of playing top-six minutes in case of injury or otherwise. But will the UFA be paid accordingly? He’s considered one of the top players available in a shallow free agent pool. If the Leafs are keen on signing an effective depth winger, however, why not retain pending UFA Clarke MacArthur? He’s capable of playing tough minutes and is consistently one of the Leafs’ top possession players.
On defence, the Leafs require a top-four defenseman capable of logging tough minutes to help Dion Phaneuf. According to www.behindthenet.ca, the Leafs captain led all defensemen in Corsi QoC (quality of competition). The workload proved to be too much as his possession numbers dipped dramatically compared to the season prior. Phaneuf has offensive instincts that beg to be exploited, but it’s unreasonable to expect that from him without an external piece coming in. The Leafs have a slew of offensive defensemen in Franson, Jake Gardiner, John-Michael Liles, and Morgan Rielly, so unloading one of them (Franson makes the most sense) to rectify another need and opening a spot for a top-four defenseman would be ideal.
If the Leafs hope to compete in the Stanley Cup playoffs once again next season, it’s imperative they improve in puck possession as the team struggled mightily in that regard. It seemed only a matter of time before it culminated into an 18-wheeler going right off a cliff. According to stats.hockeyanalysis.com, the Leafs ranked 30th in Fenwick For % (shots plus shot attempts that missed the net at even strength), which means they spent an alarming amount of time in their own end. They were also 30th in Shots For % with a 43.9 per cent, which is no surprise considering they also ranked last in
the league with 1248 shots against at even strength.
What ensured the Leafs a playoff berth was solid goaltending and a penalty kill that ranked second in the league at 87.9 per cent. They also led the league with a 10.56 shooting percentage, 0.85 per cent higher than the second place Tampa Bay Lightning. While that may seem like a remarkable achievement, it is unsustainable by NHL standards as most teams finish with a shooting percentage between seven and eight per cent. This means the Leafs rode an aberrantly high shooting percentage (among other factors) and never tasted the cold sting of regression in the shortened season. Consider that the Leafs won 21 games in which they were outshot, so over 80 per cent of their total wins.
While it is unfair to omit the Leafs’ accomplishments based on their underlying statistics, they need to build a foundation that relies on sustainable factors. Basically, they need to avoid being outshot every game. If that happens, there are solid pieces in place that could ensure the Leafs prolonged success in the league.
Ron Guillet blogs over at TheCheckingline.com ◉
.jpg){kind=link}
