UNCOMMON KNOWLEDGE
MEASURING
THE 2013
FREE AGENT
CLASS
PLAYER USAGE CHARTS REVEAL
THE OVERPRICED
& THIS YEAR'S BARGAINS
BY Rob Vollman
HockeyProspectus.com
When using hockey statistics, context is everything. Player Usage Charts show how playing conditions may affect a player's statistics. This fact, in turn, can help predict which of this year's unrestricted free agents might be overpriced, and which ones bargains.
How do you read a Player Usage Chart? The horizontal axis is the percentage of shifts a player began in the offensive zone (not counting neutral zone or on-the-fly line changes.) On the vertical axis, you'll find the player's average level of competition. The bubbles surrounding every player's name represents the team's attempted shot differential with that player on the ice relative to everyone else on the team – blue is good and red is bad, and to the degree that the bubble is sized.
What does it all mean? Consider the Player Usage Chart for UFA forwards. Those on the left side of the chart are defensive-minded players whose stats will suffer, like Jerred Smithson, Maxim Lapierre, Boyd Gordon, Marty Reasoner and Radek Dvorak. Those on the right side, however, are used offensively and will have their stats boosted, like Viktor Stalberg, Steve Sullivan, Jaromir Jagr, Scott Gomez and Vinny Prospal.
Whatever those at the top of the chart are contributing, it's being done against the league's best, like Patrik Elias, Jarome Iginla, Simon Gagne, Matt Cooke and Danny Cleary. Those at the very bottom, like Brandon Yip, Craig Adams and Drew Miller, are mostly playing against depth lines, so there's really no telling how they'd do against real competition.
Player Usage Charts are explained in more detail over at Hockey Abstract, where fans can even use an interactive tool to build their own using 2012-13 data. Since this season was only 48 games, the charts here are using a larger sample size to see how each of this year's UFAs were typically used over the past five seasons.
UFA Forwards
The UFA forwards who stand out the most are older veterans like Patrik Elias and Saku Koivu, defensive gems like Boyd Gordon and underrated stars like Nathan Horton.
Let's take Elias for starters. He faces the toughest competition of any UFA forward while playing a fairly balanced two-way role, and even though those who have been used similarly, like Jarome Iginla, Valtteri Filppula and Pascal Dupuis have negative red circles, the 37-year-old Czech has a big blue circle. Indeed, Elias is fourth on the entire chart in attempted shot differential and leads everyone with an even-strength scoring rate of 2.32 points per 60 minutes over this five-year span –
the same as Dupuis but without
the benefit of Sidney Crosby as a
line mate.
As for Koivu, he may also be a depreciating asset, but the 38-year-old Finn is still a complete, do-it-all player handling the tough minutes, winning faceoffs, killing penalties, working the power play, scoring in the shoot-out and giving his team a great attempted shot differential. Colby Armstrong may appear to be a younger alternative, but he's one of the players who has unfortunately been flattered by the five-year spread chosen for this chart. While a promising two-way forward a few years ago, his more recent usage and performance is far more similar to the defensive third-line group of Maxim Lapierre, David Steckel, Chuck Kobasew and Eric Nystrom.
If looking for a defensive-minded UFA forward, the best one available is definitely Boyd Gordon. Despite handling the toughest minutes, Gordon's team no longer gets bombed while he's on the ice - unlike earlier in his career, and unlike those being used similarly. He's also a lights-out faceoff specialist, one of the league's top penalty killers, and at 29 isn't as close to his expiry date as rapidly declining assets like Jerred Smithson (34), Marty Reasoner (36) and Radek Dvorak (36).
Turning back to offense, the highest five-year even-strength scoring rates among UFA forwards, after Elias and Dupuis, is Nathan Horton (2.27 points per 60 minutes), who is smack dab in the middle of the chart. The 28-year-old winger, whose talents were on full display throughout Boston's two recent Stanley Cup runs (36 points and +31 in 43 games) also has the highest attempted shot differential of all UFA forwards.
UFA Defensemen
Not a lot of defensemen are available this year, and most of them are best suited to a third pairing, so expect to see some overpayments. Teams looking to sign a UFA defenseman who can handle the toughest minutes better get in on the bidding for shut-down specialists Rob Scuderi and Toni Lydman or, failing that, Ron Hainsey. After that, there's a steep drop-off.
Those teams looking for a solid veteran 4th defenseman have arguably eight options – Marek Zidlicky, Michal Rozsival, Douglas Murray, Ryan O'Byrne, Joe Corvo, Jordan Leopold, Andrew Ference and Ryan Whitney. Of them, Zidlicky is certainly the most attractive both offensively and in driving possession while remaining decent defensively – unfortunately he'll likely come with a steep price tag.
Bargain-hunters looking to add offense might get a deal on the injury-prone Whitney, who is coming off a bad year – those less willing to take risks might opt for Corvo. Murray and O'Byrne are both defense-only options, while the others offer a mix of both offense and defense, with Michal Rozsival standing out statistically as the slight favourite.
The remaining defensemen are veteran third-line options, and the key is to avoid paying much more than a million or a million and a half for such players.
Closing Word
Player Usage Charts are sometimes known as “Sledgehammer Charts” for driving massive holes in arguments made for those enjoying favorable playing conditions. By looking at how players are being deployed it's possible to put their statistics in the proper context, making it easier to find bargains and to avoid the UFA day duds.