these problems , but they tend to be reactive and not focused on the future .”
The survey invited IP & C experts to answer a 10-item online questionnaire that included open-ended questions on the status of IP & C in 2030 , the people in charge of IP & C , necessary skills in IP & C , and burning research questions . These experts were selected based on their innovative approaches to IP & C as manifested by their leadership in scientific publications , global and national leadership positions , contributions to international and national organizations and initiatives , professional conferences as speakers , and social media presence .
The experts consisted of 12 physicians , four nurses , one manager , and one microbiologist , with all of them working in senior positions . The sample size was small – just 18 of 44 participating – so , results should be viewed with the understanding that extrapolation from such a small group could potentially be skewed . Most of the participants were from the United States , followed by two from Canada and Switzerland , and one each from Australia , Austria , France , Germany , Mexico , Singapore , The Netherlands , and the United Kingdom .
Sax , et al . ( 2024 ) acknowledge their survey ’ s limitations : “ The response rate was fair , and the number of participants was limited . There was a bias toward participation from the U . S ., a predominance of experience in acute-care , in high-income countries , and an academic physician background . However , the bias favoring innovative thinking and longstanding expertise was deliberate – even if the selection was not exhaustive . An ‘ experiential futures ’ research method — accommodating participants in physically simulated future environments — would perhaps have evoked a more thorough and detailed vision of more possible realities for IP & C in 2030 than a self-administered online questionnaire .”
Sax clarifies the intent of the survey and further addresses the sample size .
“ Since this is qualitative research , the goal wasn ’ t to get an average representation of all IP & C experts ,” he says . “ It ’ s more about gathering as many forward-thinking ideas as possible . Of course , you can never capture all the ideas , but we aimed to engage professionals from all over the world . There is a bias toward participants from high-income countries like the U . S ., which should be considered when interpreting the results . However , many of them reflected the realities of IP & C in low- and middle-income countries in their answers .”
Also of note , this survey was conducted a year before the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic began , so the opinions expressed might have changed substantially , and the
International experts see
pivotal opportunities in the
Title : Subtitle future of infection prevention .
INTRODUCTION
• Seeing the future of infection prevention ( IP ) might inform a more promising strategic roadmap .
METHODS
• 18 international experts ( response rate , 41 %) responded 2019 to four open questions :
Q1 . What will IP look like in 2030 ? Q2 . Who is in charge of IP then ? Q3 . Necessary skills to have ? Q4 . Open questions to be resolved ?
• Inductive thematic qualitative analysis presented as semi-quantitative anamorph idea-line graph .
CONCLUSIONS
Leeroy Jenkins , author2 , author3 , author4
What will infection prevention look like in 2030 - results of the first round of a global crystal ball exercise
Infection Prevention Crystal Ball Collaborative and Swiss Center for Infection Prevention Swissnoso
• The first round of the Infection Prevention Crystal Ball Project produced specific themes , supporting strategic decisions even beyond IP .
• 66 % of projections were positive .
• This exercise was before COVID-19 : the results might look different now .
• Further rounds with evolving methods of inquiry will update and sharpen this picture .
RESULTS
authors indicate that a follow-up survey is warranted . Interestingly , some participants anticipated the possibility of a largescale pandemic and questioned whether preparations were sufficient . As Sax , et al . ( 2024 ) note , “ It is unique to have captured a reflection of expert views of possible futures so close to this global disruption of healthcare that ended up propelling IP & C into the mainstream .”
Regarding how the pandemic may have affected the survey respondents ’ perspectives , Sax notes , “ We can ’ t draw conclusions from the 2019 data , but I think it would be fascinating to repeat the study post-pandemic and see how opinions have evolved .”
Overall , the global IP & C experts foresaw “ a positive future with IP & C being more integrated into the healthcare systems , reaching beyond the inpatient sector and
Q1 . What will IP look like in 2030 ?
Infection Prevention Crystal Ball Collaborative : Andrew Atkinson , Sue Barnes , John Boyce , Sue Bradley , Lauren Clack , Dale Fisher , Andrea Grisold , Stephan Harbarth , Anita Huis , Stefan Kuster , Elaine Larson , Andie Lee , Grace Lee , Yves Longtin , Jean- Christoph Lucet , Jonas Marschall , Eli Perencevich , Hugo Sax , Simone Scheithauer , Matthias Schlegel , Peter Schreiber , Jules Storr , Jason Tetro , Erich Tschirky , Diana Vilar Compte , Aline Wolfensberger .
Prof Dr med Hugo Sax ( Presenter ): Department of Infectious Diseases and Hospital Epidemiology , University Hospital Zurich , University of Zurich , Switzerland ( past ); Department of Infectious Diseases , Bern University Hospital and University of Bern , Switzerland ( current ).
acute-care , making better use of tools for behavioral change and diffusion of knowledge , and benefiting from further scientific discovery while leveraging technology to automate data collection and analysis for both infection surveillance and behavior monitoring . However , participants also raised concerns about the sustained spread of multidrug-resistant organisms and the slow development of IP & C in low- and middle-income countries . In addition , they stressed the need to keep IP & C rooted in clinical medicine and present ‘ at the sharp end ’ where patient care happens .” ( Sax , et al . 2024 )
Sax says the optimism of the survey isn ’ t surprising . “ In my view , people in prevention naturally lean toward optimism because prevention is about improving the current state of affairs . It ’ s part of the day-to-day work .”
14 • www . healthcarehygienemagazine . com • october 2024