25
FIG 1. Percentage increase in the number of
heatwave events per year between baseline
(1961-1990) and 2030s
(Data derived from the UKCP09 Weather Generator
(Version 2) under the medium emissions scenario).
There is no fixed definition of a ‘heatwave’. For
this study we considered the sorts of conditions
that tend to increase the risk of health problems
among older people. We defined a heatwave event
as three or more days in succession that are hotter
than usual, with maximum temperatures at a
level that will occur only five percent of the time.
Since the definition is relative to prevailing average
temperatures expected in the future, it theoretically
makes some allowance for future adaption to heat
among the older population and modification of
built infrastructure, which may mitigate, to some
extent, projected climate change effects on health.
The findings suggest that the greatest likelihood of
heat waves is expected to be in South and South
West England, while the East, North West, Yorkshire
and Humber are projected to experience an increase
in heatwave events compared to conditions now.
FIG 2. Percentage decrease in the number
of coldwave events per year between baseline
(1961-1990) and 2030s
(Data derived from the UKCP09 Weather Generator
(Version 2) under the medium emissions scenario).
We defined a coldwave as an event where the
daily maximum temperature is 0°C or below for
three or more consecutive days. Although these
events are projected to become less common in
the future, they are still likely to cause disruption,
especially if local authorities do not have plans and
resources in place to cope with them. Studies have
reported excess mortality and increased health and
social care service use among older people during
extended coldwaves.
FIG 3. The annual probability of flooding
around the 2050s
(Source: The UK Government’s Foresight Flood and
Coastal Defence Project, Environment Agency, 2004).
For flooding, we adopted the definition used
in the Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence
Project (Environment Agency, 2004), the annual
probability of inundation. This definition therefore
includes relatively minor floods which may disrupt
critical infrastructure. The findings suggest that
some areas are expected to experience an increase
in flood hazard (both fluvial and coastal), in
particular, the South East, the East of England
and the Yorkshire and Humber Region.
FIG 4. Projected proportion of older people aged
85 years and over in local authority areas in 2031
(Analysis based on 2006 sub-national population projections
by age group at local authority area level. Source: Office for
National Statistics, 2007).
The research suggests that areas experiencing
the most rapidly changing hazards often also
have large and growing numbers of older people,
especially in the oldest age groups (85 years and
over). These areas include parts of the South East
of England outside central London, and the East
of England. Many of these are rural and coastal
areas outside major urban agglomerations.
Further Information
Oven, K., Curtis, S., Reaney, S.,
Riva, M., Stewart, M., Ohlemuller,
R., Dunn, C., Nodwell, S.,
Dominelli, L.. Holden, R. (2012).
‘Climate change and health
and social care: defining future
hazard, vulnerability and risk for
infrastructure systems supporting
older people’s health care in
England.’ Applied Geography,
33: 16-24.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/
article/pii/S0143622811000956
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.
apgeog.2011.05.012
UK Climate Impacts Programme
Founded to help coordinate
scientific research into the
impacts of climate change, UKCIP
is based at the Environmental
Change Institute at the University
of Oxford. It helps organisations
and businesses adapt to the
unavoidable impacts of
climate change.
www.ukcip.org.uk
Foresight Flood and
Coastal Defence Project
Environment Agency
FIG 1.
FIG 2.
This government Foresight
programme produced a report on
the challenging and long-term
vision for the future of flood and
coastal defence for the UK. It is
being used to inform policy and
its delivery.
www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-work/
projects/published-projects/floodand-coastal-defence
FIG 3.
Legend (probability)
FIG 4.
The BIOPICCC project is
funded by the UK Government’s
Engineering and Physical
Sciences Research Council
(EPSRC) as part of a programme
on Adaptation and Resilience
to a Changing Climate (ARCC).
www.durham.ac.uk/geography/
research/researchprojects/biopiccc
www.ukcip-arcc.org.uk/
The BIOPICCC project illustrates the need for the kinds of interdisciplinary work that IHRR promotes;
geographers, health and social care experts, environmental scientists and engineers are all involved. In this
research we are also engaging with a range of partners outside the Universities, including Age UK, Defra,
the Environment Agency, the Meteorological Office and the Health Protection Agency as well as a number of
important partners with whom we are working in local authorities around the country. International experts in
other countries are also advising the project. This underlines the significance for society as a whole of the agenda
concerning how to adapt to climate change and the value of university research that connects these issues.
See BIOPICCC Research Briefing
1 for further information on the
hazard and vulnerability mapping: