Hazard Risk Resilience Magazine Volume 1 Issue 3 | Page 16

INTRO | HIGHLIGHTS | FEATURES | INTERVIEWS | PERSPECTIVES 17 EMERGENT BEHAVIOUR is needed. ‘We’re trying to look at those spatial relationships and also how fast that happens through time’, says Rosser. IN THEIR RESEARCH PAPER published in the journal Geology, Rosser’s team reported on sequences of rock falls that occurred at the coastal cliffs of the North York Moors. ‘Rock falls cluster in space, but they cluster in time as well’, says Rosser. The study identified precursors to the largest rock falls. ‘Even though the monitoring is high-resolution, the data is very noisy’, says Rosser, ‘there is rarely a perfectly clear signal’. This is because there are many different things happening at the cliff face including weathering, but also variations in the rock, such as its strength, along with the shape and structure of the cliff itself. Siobhan Whadcoat is developing a model that will use the long-term data set on the North York Moors coastal cliffs to simulate these patterns for the first time. This model incorporates failures around joints in the rocks, how failures interact, and how rock falls develop over time. Identifying risk indicators for rock falls before the ‘big one’ is not as straightforward as it would seem, because the cliff is undergoing so many changes at once at different scales. However, Rosser and his research team have managed to identify patterns in the ‘noisy’ cliff. Whilst smaller rock falls at the cliff face may appear to occur randomly, successive terrestrial laser scan data demonstrate ‘clustering’ of rock fall events in space and time. Small rock falls are always much more frequent than large rock falls. Previously Rosser and his team recorded over 500,000 rock falls, but less than 100 of those made any noticeable difference to the cliff line observable by the human eye, and the changes were too small to be picked up by aerial photography or in maps. /// KEY MESSAGES FOR POLICY -  The cause of rock fall hazards at coastal cliffs cannot only be attributed solely to environmental drivers, such as rain or marine erosion. Rock falls evolve over time and respond to a range of preparatory and triggering factors. Whadcoat’s PhD research aims to account for the internal processes that cliff erosion models have not represented well in the past. She will also investigate the ways rock falls cluster together, which seem to hold clues as to how other rock slopes may also behave. ‘Overarching failure patterns could also apply to rock fall failures in non-coastal environments, in areas such as Yosemite in California’, says Whadcoat. -  Hard rock cliff faces that appear solid and stable are likely to be experiencing an ongoing reduction in rock mass strength which may in time result in failure. In researching the mechanisms that control rock falls, Whadcoat hopes to uncover what triggers events to occur suddenly, and to develop over long periods of time. This is important because some of these unique characteristics of rock cliff behaviour are most likely universal, and worth knowing for any community that lives near a coastline or in a mountainous region where adaptation or mitigation of rock fall hazards is of paramount importance. -  rock fall model that is based on A physical data and is inclusive of rock mechanics that determine the collapse of cliffs would improve understanding of how rock falls occur along coastlines. -  Precursors may exist for large rock falls, a sequence of smaller rock falls for example, and these provide a warning before the main rock fall event takes place. Most of the failures the team monitored with TLS were shallow in depth, but would they have occurred regardless of any external environmental drivers, such as wave erosion? With more data the research team will be able to confirm whether small sections of the cliff falling one after the other is indeed an emerging pattern of rock falls. Further investigation /// REFERENCES AND FURTHER READING: Brain, M.J., Rosser, N.J., Norman, E.C. & Petley, D.N. (2014) Are microseismic ground displacements a significant geomorphic agent? Geomorphology, 207, pp. 161–173. Norman, E.C., Rosser, N.J., Brain, M.J., Petley, D.N. & Lim, M. (2013) Coastal cliff-top ground motions as proxies for environmental processes. Journal of Geophysical Research – Oceans, 118 (12) pp. 6807–6823. ‘IMAGINE THE CLIFF AS EQUIVALENT TO A BIG GAME OF JENGA,YOU PULL A CHUNK OUT OF THE BOTTOM, THEN AFTER A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF TIME THE BIT OF THE JENGA BLOCK DIRECTLY ABOVE IT MIGHT FALL, BECAUSE IT’S WEAKENED’. Dr Nick Rosser Rosser, N.J., Brain, M.J., Petley, D.N., Lim, M. & Norman, E.C. (2013) Coastline retreat via progressive failure of rocky coastal cliffs. Geology, 41, pp. 939–942. For further information about this research from the Coastal Behaviour and Rates of Activity (COBRA) project visit: http://www. dogweb.dur.ac.uk/cobra/. The research is supported by Cleveland Potash Ltd. Contact Dr Nick Rosser: [email protected] Credit: Camila Caiado. More than weathering causes coastal cliffs to collapse.