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Conclusions
“ If history shows anything, it’ s that prohibition never works, as the desire to seek out risk is part of the human psyche. Responsible governments should not encourage this. A gambling industry that is fairly taxed, properly regulated with its players protected is the commonsense approach”. Mike Atherton( 2006)‘ Gambling’
1. Global sports betting has grown from $ 41.6bn to $ 58.9bn GGR( or $ 1.2tn handle) over the last decade( 2006- 16)- with online growing at 10x the rate of all land-based activity.
2. In comparison, US sports betting has declined by-2.8 % CAGR over the same period- from $ 5.2bn to $ 3.9bn GGR( or $ 78bn handle).
3. H2 does not track black market activity as standard, but has calculated the 2016 US illegal( grey and black) market to be $ 196.2bn handle( or $ 10.4bn GGR) – significantly higher than the $ 150bn handle figure currently published by the AGA( American Gaming Association).
4. As context, this number is over 47x the current US legal sports betting market, or nearly 1.5x the total handle for all gambling taking place on the Nevada Las Vegas Strip in 2016. 5. This analysis means that 97 % of all US sports betting in 2016 was‘ illegal’. 6. If PASPA 1992 is repealed, H2 estimates an 8-10 year roll out until a regulated US sports betting market reaches its full potential – defined by a‘ European style’ land-based and online offer covering c18 States, and valued at between $ 6.1- $ 7.9bn GGR.
7. In viewing the US sports betting in advance of the New Jersey Supreme Court case, H2 found that most operators feel just repealing PASPA isn’ t enough. The strong desire is for a fresh approach to new US legislation with a core Federal regulatory template that sets out the highest level of operator requirements.
H2 concludes that the US has a unique opportunity to put in place a‘ gold standard’ regulation for sports betting if it chooses to, evolving the sector further, and drawing on key lessons learnt by those markets that have gone before it.
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