H2GC Reports The US and Sports Betting | Page 15

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Potential US Regulated Sports Betting Market

• H2 estimates for a regulated US sports betting market are conservative, and based on a 8-10 year roll out from when PASPA is first repealed.
• Post repeal, we believe the market will require at least 1-2 years of regulatory change, before then developing in three phases: 1. Phase 1( Yrs 2-4): retail, venue specific first- at existing casinos / racetracks( total US market = c6 States); 2. Phase 2( Yrs 4-6): expansion, and the gradual addition of mobile app betting( total US market = c10 States); 3. Phase 3( Yrs 7-10): the eventual move towards a‘ European style’ retail and online offer- all products, including in-play, with a relatively low tax rate( total US market = c18 States).
• In terms of market size, the‘ optimum’ fully regulated potential US sports betting market across all 50 States- assuming all products, freely available both online and in land-based facilities, with a low tax rate- could generate between $ 14.5- $ 24.5bn of GGR( low- to high-point). However, it is highly unlikely the US would ever get close to this‘ optimum’ market size.
• In reality, the‘ realistic’ market size potential will be substantially lower, as:- Not every State will allow sports betting;- Operational restrictions are likely to be applied to key areas such as stake levels, supply structure etc;- Tax levels and license fees are likely to be higher and therefore, restrictive;- The product mix and types of bet will vary significantly;- Operating channels are likely to differ from State to State.
• The potential US sports betting market size has therefore been estimated under four scenarios: 1. The‘ optimum’ market size( all States)- $ 14.5- $ 24.5bn- illustrative; 2. Phase 3: A‘ realistic’ market size, within 8-10 years of land-based and online sports betting being regulated( total US market
= c18 States)- $ 6.1-7.9bn; 3. Phase 2: Retail sports betting in casinos / racetracks, with mobile betting allowed( total US market = c10 States)- $ 3.1-4.9bn; 4. Phase 1: Retail only sports betting in casinos / racetracks, no mobile( total US market = c6 States)- $ 2.4-3.4bn.
Potential US Regulated Sports Betting Market
Scenario( GGR $ bn)
When
Low-Point
Mid-Point
‘ Optimum’ Market Size( all States)
Illustrative
14.5
24.5
Phase 3:‘ Realistic’ Market Retail and Online( c18 States)
Yrs 7-10 post PASPA repeal
6.1
7.9
Phase 2: Retail with Mobile( c10 States)
Yrs 4-6 post PASPA repeal
3.1
4.9
Phase 1: Retail only( c6 States)
Yrs 2-4 post PASPA repeal
2.4
3.4
Source: H2 Gambling Capital, 2017

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