US SPORTS BETTING IN 2023
Fig 3 : US sports betting hold margin (%)
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Jan-19 Mar-19
May-19 Jul-19
Sep-19 Nov-19
Jan-20
Source : State Gaming Boards , January 2023
Retail hold (%) Online hold (%) Total hold (%)
Mar-20 May-20
Jul-20 Sep-20
Nov-20 Jan-21
Mar-21 May-21
Jul-21 Sep-21
Nov-21 Jan-22
Mar-22 May-22
Jul-22 Sep-22
Nov-22
Fig 4 : Average share of US sports betting handle by month (%)
12 % 11 % 10 % 9 % 8 % 7 % 6 % 5 % 4 % 3 % 2 % 1 % 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source : State Gaming Boards , H2 Gambling Capital , November 2022
Fig 5 : Annualised rolling three-month gross win per adult ( in states with legal sports betting )
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Feb-19
Apr-19
Source : State Gaming , January 2023 Source : State Gaming Boards , January 2023
Jun-19 Aug-19
Oct-19 Dec-19
Feb-20 Apr-20
Jun-20 Aug-20
Oct-20 Dec-20
Feb-21 Apr-21
Jun-21 Aug-21
Oct-21 Dec-21
Feb-22 Apr-22
Jun-22 Aug-22
Oct-22
Annualised rolling three-month GGR per adult Linear ( annualised rolling three-month GGR per Adult ) than the average online hold margin of 7.4 % over the same period ( see Fig 3 ).
SPEED OF ROLLOUT
33 states have some form of sports betting , including states where there is only retail sports betting on tribal reservations .
In terms of the commercially regulated market , legal sports betting has launched in 26 states . Combined , these states have an adult population of over 100 million , or roughly 43 % of the total US adult population .
In terms of the wealth of these states , commercially regulated sports betting states have a combined GDP of over $ 10tn , or c . 42 % of total US GDP
SPORTS BETTING GROSS WIN PER ADULT
Monthly sports betting gross win can vary substantially , based on seasonality and the hold margin ( primarily driven by sports results , see Fig 4 ).
Therefore , to smooth out these monthly changes , we show the legal sports betting gross win using a three-month average gross win , and then multiply this by 12 to get an annualised figure . When dividing by the total number of adults in states where sports betting is legal , this equates to annual gross win of c .$ 60 per adult ( see Fig 5 ).
FREE BETS
Reported gross win data includes free bets , which are substantially higher in the US than elsewhere , given the high levels of competition in newly regulated states and the importance of market share / scale in terms of long-term profitability .
In European markets , free bets typically equate to c . 10-15 % of gross win , or c . 1 % of handle . However , H2 ’ s analysis shows that in the US the figure is substantially higher than this , artificially inflating the market size ( see Fig 6 overleaf ).
Over the past 12 months , sports
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