News review
Sustainable Research
Ice melt could trigger continual
sea-level rises for 10,000 years
Scientists warn of ‘uncorking’ effect that could be impossible to stop once started
By Chris Edwards
he melting of ice
T East Antarctica’son
shore
could trigger a persistent
ice discharge into the ocean,
resulting in unstoppable
sea-level rise for thousands
of years to come.
The stark warning is revealed
in a study by scientists from the
Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research (PIK). The
findings are based on computer
simulations of the Antarctic ice flow
using improved data of the ground
profile underneath the ice sheet.
“East Antarctica’s Wilkes Basin is
like a bottle on a slant,” says lead
author Matthias Mengel. “Once
uncorked, it empties out.” The
basin is the largest region of
marine ice on rocky ground in East
Antarctica. Currently a rim of ice at
the coast holds the ice behind in
place, but this relatively small
Scientists deliver stark warning of irreversible sea level rises from ice melt
‘cork’ could melt, triggering a longterm sea-level rise of 300-400cm.
“The full sea-level rise would
ultimately be up to 80 times bigger
than the initial melting of the ice
cork,” says co-author Anders
Levermann, who is head of PIK’s
research area Global Adaptation
Strategies and a lead author of the
sea-level change chapter of the
most recent scientific assessment
report by the IPCC. “Until recently,
only West Antarctica was considered
unstable, but now we know that its
10 times bigger counterpart in the
East might also be at risk.”
Melting would make the
grounding line retreat – this is where
the ice on the continent meets the
sea and starts to float. The rocky
ground beneath the ice forms a
huge inland sloping valley below
sea level. When the grounding line
retreats from its current position on
a ridge into the valley, the rim of the
ice facing the ocean becomes higher
than before. More ice is then pushed
into the sea, eventually breaking off
and melting. And the warmer it gets,
the faster this happens.
Complete ice discharge from the
affected region in East Antarctica
takes 5,000-10,000 years in the
simulations. However, once started,
the discharge would slowly continue
until the whole basin is empty, even
if climate warming stopped.
“This is the underlying issue here”,
says Mengel. “By emitting more and
more greenhouse gases we might
trigger responses now that we may
not be able to stop in the future.”
Such extensive sea-level rise would
change the face of Earth – coastal
cities such as Mumbai, Tokyo or
New York are likely to be at risk.
Sustainable Finance
Financial innovation set to slash the cost of
offshore wind energy in near future
By Jack Allen
The introduction of innovative
financing plans could
dramatically reduce the cost of
offshore wind energy, according
to a new intelligence report
published by global advisory
firm FTI Consulting.
The report, ‘Innovative
Financing of Offshore Wind’,
focuses on renewable energy
and explores the significant
potential for cutting the cost
of energy from offshore wind
power by reducing financial fees
and interest charges, which
represent an astonishing 28% of
project life cycle expenditures.
The report is authored by
members of the FTI-CL Energy
practice, a cross-practice team
Analysing the cost of offshore wind
of energy experts from both
FTI Consulting and its
subsidiary, Compass Lexecon.
A cost-of-equity sensitivity
analysis by FTI-CL Energy
professionals demonstrates
how small changes in financing
variables have a major impact
on offshore wind energy costs
to the consumer. The levelised
cost of energy (LCOE) is
extremely sensitive to changes
in debt margin. This analysis
found that an increase of 100
basis points results in an
average 3.4% increase in LCOE.
The report also found that
the entry of new investors and
lenders to the renewable
energy sector with innovative
ideas for structuring both
equity and debt is applying
beneficial pressure to financial
margins. “Respectable returns
without exposure to risk” was a
strong message from European
wind industry and financial
sector chief executive officers
interviewed for this report.
“Corporate and institutional
investors looking for low risk,
long-term and predictable yield
investments are signing on
pension, insurance and
sovereign wealth funds, to
name a few,” said Athanasia
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