� CBAM �
Figure 2: Forecast of annual CBAM certificate costs for imports of 100,000 tonnes of steel ingots per year( 2026 CBAM certificates costs only to be paid during 2027). Assumptions: no CO2-prices paid in country of production; direct specific emissions: 2.58 tCO2 / tProduct; indirect specific emissions: 0.43 tCO2 / tProduct; EU ETS“ hot metal” benchmark as proxy for CBAM benchmark; inclusion of indirect emissions from 2030 onwards.( source: carboneer CBAMCC model)
through scenario analysis is possible already today.
In our case study, the quantity of CBAM certificates to be acquired annually by the importer rises from over 130,000 for its imports in 2026( to be acquired in 2027) to more than 300,000 in 2034. Depending on the emission intensity of the imported products, a significant share of imported emissions can thus already be priced at the start of the definitive phase. An analysis per import, CBAM good, and supplier can provide insights into important metrics such as absolute and relative contribution to CBAM certificate demand.
Cost estimation and risk management for CBAM certificates
The annual costs for CBAM certificates with constant import volumes of the case study can now be estimated. Forecasts and scenarios for prices of emission allowances in the EU ETS are used for this purpose, as CBAM certificate prices are formed on a rolling basis through the weekly average of EU ETS auction prices. The carboneer CBAMCC model uses projections from various fundamental EU ETS price models and publications. The projected costs for CBAM certificates are shown in Figure 2, with the uncertainty in EU ETS prices illustrated by the bars.
The costs for CBAM certificates for the imports from 2026 to 2034 increase from roughly 10 million EUR to 25-45 million EUR in 2030. Depending on the emission intensity of the imported products, this can lead to price increases of 10- 30 % for imported iron or steel products from the start of the definitive CBAM phase. CBAM certificates are neither tradable between companies nor bankable long-term. Therefore, affected companies should prepare by developing a smart procurement strategy for CBAM certificates, for example, using technical signals to evaluate purchasing decisions. Preliminary analysis showed that such a strategy can allow for up
14 Green Steel World | Issue 18 | June 2025