NEWS
SA just formally lodged much more ambitious climate-change plans at a cost of R4 trillion
Phillip de Wet
South Africa has promised the world to dump a lot less carbon dioxide , and other greenhouse gasses , into the atmosphere , on the assumption that richer countries will make good on commitments to provide the money for climate-change mitigation and adaptation .
Because South Africa ' s new plan won ' t be cheap : it will require around R4 trillion in various types of financing by 2030 to achieve .
The targets are dramatically different from those SA set five years ago . For 2025 , annual greenhouse gas emissions are set at 398 to 510 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent , and for 2030 those numbers drop to 350 to 420 metric tons . That covers all South African industry and activity but not unpredictable wildfires , which can add another 5 to 30 metric tonnes to the total .
That will see South Africa move to
declining emissions a full decade earlier than previously anticipated , in 2025 rather than in 2035 , with the new target for 2030 set 32 % lower than previously .
At the very least , the new numbers suggest , South Africa will be emitting 12 % less greenhouse gas than its previous best-effort estimate . It could do better still ; another update to the commitments due in 2025 " will consider whether the level of ambition for 2030 can be increased further , in the light of national circumstances , technology developments , and the availability of international support ," South Africa says .
The new targets are a " fair contribution to the long-term mitigation goal " of the planet , South Africa says , and are built on the assumption that foreign money will be forthcoming to help meet them . That is an ongoing theme , with warnings that the ambitious targets " will require substantial multilateral support " for measures " including a very ambitious power sector investment plan ".
The submission shows that South Africa will be looking for a somewhat more than $ 271 billion – the equivalent of over R4 trillion – to mitigate and adapt to climate change , in various forms of financing , including domestic loans for green projects . That total is made up of :
• $ 13 million " to build evidencebased support for policy implementation ", including provincial and municipal forums .
• $ 8 million to develop tools and strategies around climate-change planning , such as long-term adaptation scenarios .
• $ 3 billion to $ 4 billion to implement the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy ( NCCAS ), which includes building flood protection , setting up early-warning systems for small farmers , and getting cities ready for trouble .
• $ 16 billion to $ 267 billion for " climate change adaptation investment pipeline projects " that are not formally further defined , but covers a wide array of renewable generation and energy efficiency projects .
" It is anticipated that a growing number of South African cities and towns will be exposed to the impacts of weather-induced hazards such as flooding , heatwaves , droughts , wildfires , and storms ," the document reads .
" This is partly due to the projected increase in the frequency and intensity of weather-related hazards , but also due to the high socio-economic vulnerability inherent within communities , as well as poor land-use practices , growing informality , and a failure to rapidly deploy resilient infrastructure associated with accommodating a growing urbanising population ."
Source : Getty
Grassroots Vol 21 No 3 November 2021 32