Figure 2: Most Fynbos species are adapted to tolerate or even
Here a recently burnt Protea species has released its seeds from
cences or “cones” in which they hold their seeds to protect the
out fire, recruitment is rare, and adult plants begin to senesce,
the population and allowing forest or alien species to invade.
Figure 3: Much of the forest behind Kirstenbosch would once
but the spread of agriculture and later suburbia has altered the
ment and excluded fire. One can still find ancient individuals o
Fynbos species like kreupelhout (Leucospermum conocarpode
in the newly forested areas.
when they are surrounded by barriers
to fire such as rivers and other nonflammable
boundaries, or if they experience
few ignitions or only experience
ignitions at times when fire is unlikely to
spread.
Now consider how natural ignition
catchments may be altered by human
activities that change the frequency,
timing and location of ignition sources
or that affect fire spread through changes
in land use and land cover. If one
compared a landscape with and without
these human influences, you’d rapidly
be able to infer where the fire regime
may be affected.
Take this one step further and compare
the results of
run for the natural
landscapes, and you
predict the change i
high degree of accu
what we did, using
as a case study.
Anthropogenic fire
spread of forest on
The Peninsula provi
cation to test our id
is a 60-old year recor
urban expansion. Th
of the spread of firefire-dependent
Fynb
period, providing us
to validate our predi
Grassroots Vol 20 No 2 June 2020