fire regimes
future)
EON Fynbos Node
ps://bit.ly/2zGz9EY
d Glenn Moncrieff
activities are alternd
into the future.
observation alone
need conceptual,
r statistical models
defensible projecd
future. These are
gin to address with
a study published
y factors that deterlnerability
of a site
se them to predict
to see changes in
time. To do this, we
cept proposed by
014) to explain why
n areas adjacent to
major rivers in the Kruger National Park.
Namely, because they have ‘a smaller
ignition catchment, as fires that originate
on one side of a river rarely cross
to the other side’.
While van Wilgen et al.’s concept was
purely spatial, we expanded this heuristic
to include both the spatial extent
and temporal range where an ignition is
likely to result in a site burning. In other
words, sites are more likely to burn
where ignitions are more readily available
and where any ignition across a
large area would result in the site burning
under the dominant or a broader
range of weather conditions.
Conversely, sites are less likely to burn
the count of fires detected by the MODIS mission satellites
the period 1 November 2000 to 1 July 2019. Fire is common
st arid or densely forested areas.
Grassroots Vol 20 No 2 June 2020