uld cause abrupt
es this century
ity of Cape Town and 2 Research Fellow Genetics,
Div of Biosciences, UCL
ps://bit.ly/3cdVN54
1
and Alex Pigot 2
NEWS
rojected to escalate
d 2040s. Under a high
ions scenario the risk
loss is projected to
cting tropical forests
ecosystems by the
s use historical temd
the upper limit that
ve under, as far as we
tures rise to levels a
perienced, scientists
ence of their ability
ecies, such as those
ation times, may be
species with longer
ch as most birds and
only a few generaented
temperatures
ens the species’ abilhis
problem may be
iversity from climate
nificant threat to huany
countries a large
rely on their immement
for their food
Sudden disruption of
uld negatively affect
n income and feed
ly pushing them into
cosystems in the Inand
the west coast of
of sudden disruption
Hundreds of millions
regions rely on wildntial
source of food.
from coral reefs are
income.
ia and Africa, large
Amazon, Indonesian
e projected to be at
high emissions scel
communities could
od security of people
uld also reduce the
opical forests to lock
nd mammals that are
g seeds are lost.
Urgent next steps
These findings highlight the urgent need
for climate change mitigation. Rapidly reducing
greenhouse gas emissions this decade
will help save thousands of species
from extinction, and protect the life-giving
benefits they provide to humans.
Keeping global warming below 2°C flattens
the curve of climate change risk to biodiversity.
It does this by massively reducing the
number of species at risk and buys more
time for species and ecosystems to adapt
to the changing climate – whether that’s by
finding new habitats, changing their behaviour,
or with the help of human-led conservation
efforts.
There’s also an urgent need to ramp up
efforts to help people in high risk regions
adapt their livelihoods as climate change
alters local ecosystems.
Projecting where and when species will
be exposed to dangerous climate change
throughout the century could provide an
early warning system, identifying those areas
most at risk of abrupt ecological disruption.
In addition to highlighting the urgent
need for reducing fossil fuel usage, these
results could help guide conservation efforts,
such as designating new protected
areas in climate refugia.
They could also inform resilient ecosystem-based
approaches for helping people
adapt to changing climates. An example
would be planting mangroves to protect
coastal communities against increasing
flooding.
The potential to continuously update and
validate these near-term projections as
ecological responses to climate change
unfold should further refine projections of
future climate risks to biodiversity that are
so central to managing the climate crisis.
Our planet is still teeming with life. And
with the right political leadership and daily
actions that we take as citizens, we still have
the power to keep it that way.
Video material
Biodiversity exposure to dangerous climate
conditions:
https://youtu.be/hR7gKqThHqk
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