NEWS
diction out of whack.
For instance, you could say that the
species Protea Magnifica occurs with
a 100% likelihood in the fynbos biome,
but it becomes impossible to pinpoint
the certainty of its occurrence within
a 10 m 2 range. With respect to rain-
fall projections, however, one of the
few exceptions at the regional scale is
the Western Cape, where the models
predict the entire westerly frontal sys-
tems are likely to start moving south,
thus creating conditions of a greater
frequency of drought in this part of the
world.
This also holds for other Mediterrane-
an-climate areas of the world like West-
ern Australia, South America, Califor-
nia and the Mediterranean itself. This
is one of the most consistent and well
agreed weather-system shifts that oc-
curs. The circulation from the poles to
the tropics is strengthened and it push-
es the fronts more towards the south.
Q: To what extent do these extreme in-
dividual events create honest signals of
larger climate breakdown?
A: There’s no question that the trends
we’re seeing in rainfall indicate much
more intense events, but, interestingly,
also longer dry spells between them.
So, even where you don’t get a change
in rainfall, you’re seeing a concentra-
tion of rain into shorter, sharper events
with flooding — and then the dry spells
in between can seal off the soils, so you
get this increased run-off effect. atures and more people, Cape Town
could run into problems.
We’ve seen flooding in Joburg, more
broadly in Gauteng, and KwaZulu-Na-
tal, for example. This terrible recent
sequence of cyclones that hit Mozam-
bique has also brought home the re-
ality of these risks. And we’re only in
2019. Let’s say this doesn’t bode well.
If extreme weather does occur over the
next few decades, we’re going to have
to be ready. The melting of Greenland ice is un-
precedented. You’re looking beyond
South Africa’s shores. And there are all
sorts of signs that the system is starting
to show all the signs of this shift into a
much warmer world. DM
Look at the drought in Makhanda.
Cape Town nearly ran out of water. The
likelihood of a Cape Town drought was
something we identified in 2000 when
we were doing some work for local
government and looked at rainfall re-
cords going back to the 1920s.
We saw this very significant natural
drought in the 1920s and 1930s and it
was obvious that, with warmer temper-
We’re now seeing these extremes
starting to bite. Elsewhere in the world,
we’ve seen hectic heatwaves in Aus-
tralia leading, for example, to mass
mortality of fruit bats. Europe’s heat-
waves have been extraordinary.
Professor Midgley is also co-author of
leading South African climate change
studies dating back to the year 2000,
and was awarded Germany’s Humboldt
Research Award in June. According to
Stellenbosch University, “the award is
granted in recognition of a researcher’s
entire achievements to date and to ac-
ademics whose fundamental discover-
ies, new theories or insights have had
a significant impact on their own dis-
cipline and who are expected to con-
tinue producing cutting-edge achieve-
ments in the future.”
Photo Competition Entry: Cover Photos
A stand of Kniphofia reach for the sky. Photo: Heleen Els
33
Grassroots
Vol 19
No 4
November 2019