Prediction Plus Patchwork Equals Pandemic
“ The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA .” Why there was a disconnect between data and action continues to be debated .
The Spanish Flu
The Spanish Flu followed the
same pattern of infections and controversial mismanagement as COVID-19 , demonstrating how quickly an infectious disease can spread and establishing that hours are critical in managing the increase of infection and that affective public awareness is mandatory for consensus and public health . Like COVID-19 , the Spanish Flu started with what was perceived as an isolated incident that would not harm the larger population . By September 1918 , the Spanish Flu had been spreading through the army and naval installations in Philadelphia , but Wilmer Krusen , Philadelphia ’ s Public Health Director , assured the public that the stricken soldiers were only suffering from “ the old-fashioned seasonal flu ” and that it would be contained before infecting the civilian population ( Roos 2020 ). A parade to honor veterans was held on September 28 , 1918 , in Philadelphia , despite numerous health officials ’ warnings calling for quarantine . Infectious disease experts warned Krusen that a parade would be “ a ready-made inflammable mass for a conflagration ” ( Malsevic 2020 ). On September 30 , 1918 , the Philadelphia Inquirer reported that 200,000 people had attended the parade . Just 72 hours after the parade , all thirty-one of Philadelphia ’ s hospitals were full , 45,000 people were sick and 2,600 people were dead ( Panjawani 2020 ). Both the College of Physicians Philadelphia Medical Library and the Pennsylvania School of Nursing archives confirmed these numbers ( Barbara Bates Center n . d .).
In Figure 1 , the newspaper clipping indicates the lukewarm response by Philadelphia health officials . Health officials “ warn against the results of fright and urge a calmness from which the best results of public and individual cooperation may be obtained ,” which clearly contradicts the evidence that even in 1918 , infectious diseases spread quickly and decisive action would be needed within hours to curb the rise in infection and fatality . In places where facemasks and lockdowns were ordered to contain the Spanish Flu , a slowdown of the infection rate occurred . An article from the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences concluded , after careful study of the Spanish Flu incidents , spread of infection , mortality rates , and recorded evidence of public behavior , that public awareness and changes in behavior had a major role in the slowdown of the first wave of Spanish Flu . Not surprisingly , Philadelphia ’ s response was considered the worst in the nation ( Goldstein 2009 ).
Unlike Philadelphia , St . Louis flattened the curve by clear and unwavering public awareness campaigns and definitive mandates demanding changes in public behavior . Even before the first case of the Spanish Flu had been reported in St . Louis , Health Commissioner Dr . Max Starkloff had local physicians on high alert and wrote an editorial in the St . Louis Post-Dispatch
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