Global Security and Intelligence Studies Volume 3, Number 1, Spring/Summer 2018 | Page 40

Strategic Warning and Anticipating Surprise: Assessing the Education and Training of Intelligence Analysts
emphasizes critical thinking skills and mastering core competencies or knowledge.
Those who argue it is a science and recognize the challenge for analysts to
avoid cognitive bias advocate for the use of more social scientific research methods
(quantitative or qualitative). The use of SATs is viewed by their proponents as
falling into the second category, although there is much disagreement on whether
SATs can be considered “scientific” (Artner, Girven, and Bruce 2016; Coulthart
2017).
The use of SATs for intelligence analysis is paramount in the works of authors
such as Clark (2016); Beebe and Pherson (2014); and Heuer and Pherson (2014)
in order to teach students multiple ways in which information can be analyzed
using these techniques. SATs require that analysts use their current information
and categorize it or expand on it to come up with a valid prediction or analysis.
As developed by Heuer and Pherson (2014), SATs fall within a series of categories,
such as Decomposition and Visualization; Idea Generation; Scenarios and
Indicators; and Decision Support. Based on the problem to be analyzed or puzzle
to be solved, certain SATs under each of these categories will be more appropriate
than others. By using SATs, analysts can provide evidence for how they reached
their conclusion. They can also share their data with other analysts who have also
been trained on the use of SATs within the IC and figuratively speak a common
language (e.g., crowd-sourcing and use of Intellipedia). Beebe and Pherson (2014)
further provide case studies in the use of SATs demonstrating how different SATs
can be utilized from different categories to analyze an actual historical event. The
primary goal of the use of SATs proposed by these authors is for a student to be
able to analyze a topic or issue and avoid biases (e.g., use of Brainstorming and Red
Teaming).
While the development of the term SATs is fairly new, the concepts employed
are not. Some of the techniques included as SATs have been around for
decades, often employed in the business world. One example would be SWOT
(Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats) analysis, which is used extensively
outside the intelligence community for leadership development and decision-making.
Some of these techniques can be considered more qualitative rather
than quantitative methodologies since they lack the scientific rigor associated
with much of social science research or even basic statistical analysis (Bayesian
probability, criticality, standard deviations, etc.).
Although the literature does suggest a division between the two camps of
those advocating intelligence analysis as an art, with an emphasis on critical thinking
skills, and those proposing the use of Structured Analytical Techniques, there
is some agreement that one actually precedes the other. For instance, Pherson and
Pherson (2016) also focus on the use of Structured Analytical Techniques in their
writing and are strong advocates for the use of SATs; however, they do argue in
their text that critical thinking is still the main skill that all intelligence analysts
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