Global Security and Intelligence Studies Volume 2, Issue 1, Fall 2016 | Page 72

Global Security and Intelligence Studies
Islamic State propaganda on social media platforms (Hughes 2016, 66). While Islamist
terrorists can certainly employ consumer drones in attacks, lone wolves responsible
for attacks motivated by anti-government, anti-abortion, and other ideologies might
be more prone to using drones for the safety benefits. Such terrorists generally have a
stronger sense of self-preservation than religiously motivated terrorists seeking glory
and martyrdom, such as followers of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. Physical standoff
afforded by consumer drones, with up to a 2,000-m reliable range, grant lone wolves
greater chances for evasion following an attack (Abbott et al. 2016, 5). This distance
and the ability to fly an explosive-laden drone into a target remotely avoids risks
associated with security video footage and access control points scanning or checking
identification.
Trends in domestic lone wolf terrorism indicate the utilization of consumer
drones would yield strong benefits for lone wolves. Bombs were the weapon of
choice in 54% of domestic lone wolf attacks between 2001 and 2012 (Eby 2012, 37).
Consumer drones provide a means to deliver a bomb in a way that bypasses traditional
security measures hindering placement by hand. Aerial delivery also reduces the risk
of discovery of the bomb prior to detonation, as the terrorist can fly the bomb to the
target and detonate the bomb once within an acceptable blast radius. Between 2001
and 2012, lone wolf targets included buildings (43% of cases), the public (37%), a
person or place of interest (14%), and infrastructure (4%), with the remaining 2%
of targets unknown to law enforcement (Eby 2012, 33). Consumer drones provide
lone wolves the means to bypass security features around buildings, such as perimeter
fences and access control points. Drones can also increase the carnage in an attack
targeting the public by detonating a bomb at a slightly higher altitude and increasing
the blast radius, or achieve greater proximity to a person of interest by guiding the
drone remotely past personal security escorts and guards.
The advent of consumer drones, now affordable and widely accessible to the
public, may influence future attacks due to new capabilities, such as overcoming
physical standoff and bypassing layered physical security through flight, anonymity
through remote control operation, and other risks to the terrorist. Terrorist applications
of consumer drones remain a foggy area, due to the lack of historical attacks involving
drones, but innovators will likely experiment and hone methods in the coming years.
As Hamm and Spaaj conclude, “although lone wolf terrorism may not be increasing
in the United States, it is undergoing dramatic changes in terms of modus operandi,”
which may include consumer drones in the near future (Hamm and Spaaj 2015, 5).
As consumer drones drop in cost and include more features, lone wolves will likely
experiment with drones for terrorist plots.
Although drones are now affordable to the common profile among lone wolves
in the United States, it is unlikely attacks in the near future will incorporate this new
technology, at least, in the form of carrying explosives toward a target. According
to the Diffusion of Innovations Theory, 2.5% of a given population is innovators,
experimenting with new methods and tactics, which others in the population adopt
at later stages (“Diffusion of Innovations Theory” 2016). Due to the lack of events
involving consumer drones among lone wolf attacks, lone wolves likely fall into this
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