Global Security and Intelligence Studies Volume 1, Number 1, Fall 2015 | Page 9

Global Security and Intelligence Studies - Volume 1, Number 1 - Fall 2015
The Future of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
Mike Fowler A*
Predictions of widespread adoption of UAVs for every airpower task are overzealous.
This article uses innovation theory to critically analyze the likely future
of UAVs using a framework of expected benefits and costs of adoption
across core air force missions: air superiority; intelligence, surveillance, and
reconnaissance (ISR); rapid global mobility; global strike; and command and
control (C2). While UAVs will certainly take on an expanded role in warfare,
predictions of universal military adoption of UAVs are over-zealous because
they fail to incorporate the total costs associated with adoption of new technology
for a large organization.
Key Words: UAV, Drones, Military Innovation
Contemporary projections of massive unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)
proliferation have become commonplace, with some extreme forecasts of a
gloomy Armageddon of a world run by robots (Kreps and Zenko 2014). These
predictions of widespread adoption of UAVs for all military and law enforcement
tasks portend a dynamic shift in the very character of war. Yet, these predictions
tend to be oversimplistic, ignoring the major obstacles to widespread adoption. This
article uses innovation theory to critically analyze the likely future of UAVs using a
framework of expected benefits and costs of adoption across core air force missions:
air superiority; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR); rapid global
mobility; global strike; and command and control (C2) (Rogers 2003, 233). While
UAVs will certainly take on an expanded role in warfare, predictions of universal
military adoption of UAVs are overzealous because they fail to incorporate the total
costs associated with adoption of new technology for a large organization.
In February 2014, a conference at The Pentagon brought together academics,
defense contractors, and military practitioners to discuss the future of small UAVs.
Many of the attendees had an untempered enthusiasm for the future of UAVs. On
the commercial side, their thoughts paralleled Lev Grossman’s predictions for UAVs:
“Police departments will use them to study crime scenes. Farmers will use them to
A
Assistant Professor of Military and Strategic Studies, United States Air Force Academy.
*
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or
position of the United States Air Force, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.
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