Passenger numbers set to return to slow growth in 2023
Estimates suggest that travel industry will have lost 2-3 growth years by 2030
The damage to the travel industry from COVID-19 will be felt for years , but all indications are that the public have retained their need and desire to travel .
That ’ s according to a long-term estimate by the International Air Transport Association ( IATA ) and research outfit Tourism Economics on post-COVID-19 passenger demand recovery .
The findings indicate that the public remain eager to travel in the short and long-term , but it will take some time before this willingness transfers to bookings .
According to the report , global passenger numbers will recover to 52 percent of 2019 levels this year and to 88 percent of pre-COVID-19 levels in 2022 . The following year , these are expected to have grown to 105 percent of 2019 figures .
By 2030 , global passenger numbers are expected to have grown to 5.6 billion . That would be seven percent below forecasts before the pandemic and represent an estimated loss of 2-3 years of growth .
Beyond 2030 , air travel is expected to slow , due to weaker demographics and a baseline assumption of limited market liberalisation , producing an average annual growth rate of three percent between 2019 and 2039 . IATA ’ s pre-COVID-19 growth forecast for this period was four percent .
“ The rapidly growing vaccinated population and advancements in testing will return the freedom to fly in the months ahead . And when that happens , people are going to want to travel ,” said Willie Walsh , IATA ’ s director general , in a statement .
“ The immediate challenge is to reopen borders , eliminate quarantine measures , and digitally manage vaccination / testing certificates .”
Vaccine tourism spurred by surplus doses in US
Travellers journeying from low-dose countries in hope of vaccination short-cut
With no quarantine requirements and a supply of shots that outstrips demand , the United States has become an attractive destination for vaccine tourists .
The country is becoming a preferred destination for people from countries with limited availability of vaccines and the means to travel overseas .
Since April , some American cities and states have had a surplus of vaccines that are being offered to anyone who wants them , even if they are not local residents .
One British vaccine tourist resident in Kenya , where there are only enough shots to vaccinate one percent of the population , told MIT Technology Review : “ It ’ s a bit of a joke , really . Is it really better to fly loads of people to New York to do this than to just fly some vaccines from New York to places where vaccines are needed ?”
The US is not the only country encouraging vaccine tourism . Tour operators are also offering trips to Moscow to receive the Sputnik vaccine and Dubai to receive the Chinese Sinopharm shots . Even Europeans have considered trips overseas if they are able to get around travel bans from the slow-to-vaccinate continent .
In Thailand , the travel agency Unithai Trip has been offering packages to the US for up to US $ 6,400 that include the option to receive either the Johnson & Johnson or two-dose Pfizer vaccine .
The situation raises the question whether America should be donating more of its surplus doses to the World Health Organization ’ s COVAX initiative to provide vaccines to poor countries , in addition to the 500 million doses it has already pledged .
GlobalHealthAsiaPacific . com JUNE 2021
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