Global Custodian Spring 2018 | Seite 16

[ U P D AT E ] China-UK access scheme expected to take shape CHINA’S CAPITAL MARKET REFORMS – HAVING FACED POINTED QUESTIONS ABOUT THEIR VIABILITY AND DU- RABILITY INITIALLY – ARE STEAMING AHEAD. O nly two years ago at the then NEMA Conference in Shanghai were industry experts casting doubt on Bond Connect, describing the scheme as an outlandish non-starter. Today, Bond Connect is the most popular China access channel for foreign investors with early volumes and registrations trumping previous market entry schemes like Stock Connect and direct CIBM (China Interbank Bond Market). The next 12 to 18 months could well see the introduction of IPO Connect and ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) Connect, enabling investors in China and Hong Kong respec- tively to subscribe to primary issues and acquire ETF products. To date, Hong Kong has been the only market to participate in the “Connect” schemes, mainly because of the intrinsic relationship between regulatory agencies in both jurisdictions. Ever since the launch of Stock Connect in April 2014, there has been rampant conjec- ture that more markets beyond Hong Kong will be invited to join the Connect party, including Singapore, Taiwan and Korea. An outlier to this group has always been the UK, a country which has forged close commercial links with China and was the first market to issue renminbi denominated debt. According to Gary O’Brien, head of custody product, Asia-Pacific at BNP Paribas Securi- 16 Global Custodian Spring 2018 ties Services, there was no noise to suggest that regional markets would be invited to join Stock Connect, but positive sounds were being made about the UK. A feasibility study exploring the logistics of a UK-Shang- hai Stock Connect was first launched in 2015 but conversations were derailed following the Brexit vote less than one year later. The idea, however, has undergone a bit of re-launch following confirmation from the UK government that both countries had agreed to speed up development of a London-Shanghai Stock Connect, and launch a study assessing the practicality of a Bond Connect and Mutual Recognition of Funds (MRF) equivalent. “A UK-China Stock Con- nect would provide Chinese investors with access to the UK equity market, but would also enable European and potentially US investors to trade China A Shares through the London linkage,” said O’Brien. In terms of any UK-China Stock Connect launch, O’Brien said mainland regulators had a solid track record of implementing reforms quickly as evidenced by the seven weeks it took to unveil Bond Connect following its first announcement. “China is keen to sup- port the internationalisation of the RMB, and an expedited launch of UK-China Stock Connect would help serve that objective,” he said. Industry experts have expressed mixed opinions about the workability of a Lon- don-Shanghai Stock Connect. Glaring red flags which may impede the idea’s success include Chinese limitations on short-sell- ing; divergent settlement time-frames and the use of renminbi in settlements. Most significant is that Shanghai’s time zone is eight hours ahead of London, creating inevitable trade settlement challenges. A London-Shanghai Stock Connect would also face problems around capital controls while foreign investors have also criticised the fre- quency at which share trading is suspended on the mainland. NEXT ISSUE OF GC: China special: With MSCI formalising China’s entry into its emerging market index and banks incorporating China’s bonds into their indices, a ton of passive funds are going to move into China, but can the country handle such large trading volumes?