Global Custodian Private Equity 2018 | Page 21

[ M A R K E T low interest rates and market volatility, institutions want to diversify their portfo- lios away from equities and fixed income products. “Increasing interest in such products is also being driven by clients wanting greater diversification from their private equity managers,” says Joe Patel- laro, managing director and head of SS&C Global Private Equity Services. A report by HSBC Global Banking and Markets highlighted the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) at direct lending funds typically as standing anywhere between 10% to 15%. Such high returns are quite difficult to find in other asset classes. Bal- looning client demand has predictably led to private equity and hedge funds scoping out private credit, but their interest is also a response to the challenges threatening their own existing business models. For hedge funds, performance has been weak for almost a decade and many see illiquid assets as a potential revenue gen- erator, which could offset poor returns and make it easier to raise capital. Re- turns have not been a problem for private equity, but there is a growing recognition that their strong performance cannot last forever, mainly because the asset class is managing too much money, making it harder to source deals at reasonable prices. Entering a new asset class is not always seamless. The expertise that comes with researching an equity security or a company’s financial statements is not as applicable in private credit, meaning hedge funds and private equity firms need to hire people who know what they are doing and have credit backgrounds other- wise managers put themselves at risk of underwriting loans to weak or un-credit- worthy SMEs. Most managers have avoided this trap. “From a knowledge perspective, private equity managers are in a strong posi- tion to move into the debt space. While there are different processes in terms of systems, data collection and risk man- agement, there are a number of service providers who can help managers should they choose to diversify their businesses. It is important to partner with the right provider,” explains Holz. Risks to watch The chief risks nowadays for private cred- it is twofold, namely that NPLs (non-per- forming loans) in Southern Europe default en masse, and that interest rates – R E V I E W | D I R E C T L E N D I N G ] especially in the US – rise. The latter scenario could usher more competition into the private debt and direct lending sector. For a decade now, banks have veered away from writing loans, primarily because the low rates made them fairly uneconomical. “The reality is private debt is a relatively new asset class, and investors simply need better education about how it works.” MARC DE KLOE, ADAMAS ASSET MANAGEMENT With higher rates looming, banks may start issuing more loans, and potentially taking away business from fund managers. Looser regulation could also incentivise banks to lend out more. The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said banks should consider providing more short-term, lower value loans, a practice that was discouraged in 2013. Experts dispute this will impact private credit though. “While US regulation may decrease, it is not a really a problem because most managers have established deal teams and deal flow, which many banks have dismantled,” says Marc de Kloe, COO at Adamas Asset Management, a private credit manager. Private credit is also facing a similar risk to private equity and hedge funds, namely surplus cash is moving into the asset class too quickly. As loans and debt are finite – much like money-mak- ing deals and trades – managers could struggle to find invest- ments going forward. Dry powder in private debt is steadily rising, and currently stands at a record $236 billion, according to Preqin. Clients are at least conscious that this is happening, with 45% telling Preqin that investment opportunities would be harder to come by moving forward, and 40% said they were concerned about valuations in private debt. However, if private debt capital is not spent, investors may start reconsidering the asset class. Equally, it could lead to some private credit managers– hungry for yield - channelling loans in the direction of weak borrowers, leading to widespread defaults, particularly if rates go north. Not everyone is apocalyptic about what the future holds for private credit strategies though. “Private debt is a very diverse asset class, and covers a gambit of products including NPLs, high-yield and syndicated loans. The reality is private debt is a relatively new asset class, and investors simply need better edu- cation about how it works, so they can become more comforta- ble with it,” concludes de Kloe. Private Equity Issue 2018 globalcustodian.com 21