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Major trends in the global trucking industry include (1) telematic services (digitalization – surveillance, security, fleet management & integrated supply chain); (2) urban delivery & logistics concepts; (3) larger fleets & sharing concepts (consolidation; flexible services/pay-per-use); (4) alternative drive systems; as well as (5) connectivity and autonomous driving.
Outlook: According to Shell & DLR study (2016) , freight road transport mileage may go up by as much as 39% by 2040, along with a significant increase in commercial vehicles on German roads. Freight transport in Germany has risen by 60% over the last 25 years and is expected to increase by another 50% by 2040. Road transport remains the primary mode of freight transport in Germany and Diesel vehicles account for 95% of the total fleet. According to Deloitte (2016) , the share of alternative drives in the commercial vehicle segment is to significantly increase within the next ten years. By 2026, electric and hybrid CVs alone are projected to reach a market share as high as 20% by 2026. This trend may be accelerated by legislative changes (such as: reduction of emissions & potential city bans for conventional trucks; new business models, e.g. for last mile deliveries etc) in key markets.
As of January 2017, approx. 37,000 commercial vehicles with alternative drive trains (battery electric, hybrid, CNG, LPG, Fuel Cell) were registered in Germany . While analysts struggle to provide consistent forecasts for the time frame & mass market deployment of EVs in the passenger vehicle segment, there are indications that EVs will play a decisive role in the commercial vehicle segment in the short-mid term. Electric and hybrid drives offer significant advantages for the light commercial vehicle segment, especially for short- to medium-ranges and in urban environments (last0mile deliveries). Most mid-size and large German cities have already announced plans to change their public transport fleets to low and zero-emission vehicles (especially electric buses) as soon as respective vehicles are available. Natural gas (CNG/LPG) and Diesel drives are expected to maintain their advantageous position for long-distance transport in the near- to mid-term future – however, there is also significant R&D activity on battery electric and fuel cell electric commercial vehicles. Significant efforts & investments are going into pilot projects intending to validate used case for both new vehicle concepts as well as new urban logistic concepts, strategies and business models.
For More Information about exporting to Germany contact:
Felix Happe
Commercial Specialist - Global Auto & Smart Mobility Team
U.S. Consulate Munich, Germany
+49-89-288-8752
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