The Holy Grail
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The Holy Grail
Microbetting will produce more revenue for sportsbooks , but how will it be promoted ?
Critical mass has always been the key to success for sports betting . If you can only make a few wagers on the results of the entire game / match , you might as well be betting the horses . And we know that horse racing is a dying sport for that exact reason . They haven ’ t figured out how to allow betting at the quarter pole or any other length of the race , or even of the margin of victory , so the win-place-show and all the attendant parlays is about it .
While sports betting has a few more results-driven wagers available , the real prize is figuring out how to bet in-game or in-running , whatever it ’ s called . When you could predict whether the next pitch will be a strike or a ball , or even a fastball versus a curveball , you ’ ve drilled down . When you have analytics to place accurate odds on whether the next play will be a run or a pass , you ’ ve got something . Or if you could take a flyer on whether the basketball team will run a play resulting in a layup or a 3-point shot , you might be building something strong .
So far , in-game wagering hasn ’ t taken off in the U . S . Much of it could be the result of lagging technology . Either the operator doesn ’ t trust the technology to offer in-game betting or the player gets frustrated with the lag time between deciding to make the bet and actually pulling the trigger . Seems that more often than not , the odds change dramatically in the other direction or the bet gets taken off the board . It ’ s frustrating for both parties .
In addition , in-gaming betting is largely limited to the shifting odds on the results of the entire game . For example , in soccer , if a team that started the game at + 200 scores the first goal , the odds of them winning the game probably drops to even money or even -120, given the paucity of scoring in many soccer matches . But try to find a bet that predicts which team will make the next turnover . In most cases , the U . S . for sure , it won ’ t be there .
But there are dozens of companies in pursuit of the “ holy grail ,” and the ones that succeed will do very well . SimpleBet is a company that is a contender . Mark Nerenberg , the company ’ s chief commercial officer , explains why it ’ s important to understand the dynamics between this “ micro time frame in-play betting .” While he says that this kind of wagering hasn ’ t been that prominent in the European sports betting community , he believes it will be different in the U . S . “ because of the cadence of the U . S . sports and the significance of these micro events within the sports .”
The microbettor will have a chance to wager whether Aaron Judge will hit a home run while he ’ s in the on-deck circle , or even when he ’ s down 0-2 , when the odds will soar against him hitting it out
He says that there is always significant time to place bets on these micro events , and that those events are already highly recognized by fans .
“ They have opinions on whether one team is going to stop the other on third-and-one , or whether the next hitter will be able to deliver in the clutch ,” he says . “ Those things are already ingrained in the U . S . sports .”
Nerenberg says the technical expertise compiled by SimpleBet over the past three years has made a huge difference .
“ When you ’ re taking these microbets , you have to know the exact state of the game at all times ,” he says . “ We got very good at defensive logic , where we identified all these situations that we know would be wrong . Then the other challenge was marrying that with fully powered machine learning models that could work with that defensive logic to reprice the market . Dozens of markets are being created with every pitch , every play , and we ’ ve gotten really good at the machine learning engineering aspect of microbetting .” The benefits of microbetting are many , according to Nerenberg . “ Starting with the users ,” he says , “ it ’ s that short interlude and ondemand . That ’ s where the internet is going now . Instead of just waiting for a three-hour game to be over for a result , they can jump in and out and make bets the entire game . For the users , it ’ s a higher level of engagement .
“ For the operators , it ’ s high turnover , good monetization , similar to iGaming . But this is built on underlying entertainment that people are already engaged with . For example , if Aaron Judge is on deck , will he hit a home run when he gets up ? Or even better , if he ’ s down 0-2 in the count , the odds just got more attractive for a huge payout for the bettor .”
While the U . S . sports seem to be more suited for microbetting , similar situations exist in such games as golf and cricket . And as the technology improves , and bettors aren ’ t shut out of bets that have a rapid resolution , microbetting should thrive . — Patrick Roberts
22 Global Gaming Business DECEMBER 2022