AUTONOMOUS REVOLUTION
The Autonomous Revolution:
The Impact of Self-Driving Cars on Our Society
W
e are in a significant
technology transition
right now, fueled by
the convergence of
sensors connected
to the Internet of Things with high-
speed connectivity everywhere,
enabled by ever-faster computing
power and sophisticated applications.
Other enabling technologies are the
revolutions in materials sciences,
battery storage, and solar power. As a
result, we are starting to see electric-
powered self-driving cars owned by
fleet operators (called “autonomous
fleets”) as opposed to the individually
owned and operated gas-powered
vehicles that we drive today.
Electric cars will be as cheap as
regular cars by 2025. Because electric
vehicles have many fewer moving
parts, the reliability and lifespan
of these cars will also improve
dramatically (from 200K-300K miles to
500K-1M miles). The design will be
more like an airplane - the Boeing 737
has a 30-year duty cycle. Owners of
By: Jim Jubelirer
these fleets will want to lower their
costs, so the auto manufacturers have
an incentive to produce more durable
cars. Of course, this will decimate the
conventional market for consumer cars.
Will the traditional brands lead into the
future? They are certainly interested in
doing so. Change is coming, and they
need to adapt or get left behind. Mark
Fields, CEO of Ford Motor, stated:
“The next decade will be defined by
autonomous cars. It will be as big a
transition as our original manufacturing
line for the Model T. When you look
at the benefits of autonomous vehicles,
we want to lead the way.”
The self-driving component of
the autonomous revolution is also
progressing rapidly. Existing car
manufacturers, new car aspirants,
current software giants (think Apple
and Google), and startups around
the world are working hard on this.
Partial self-driving car capabilities exist
today - my Tesla Model 3 comes with
Fully Self-Driving (FSD) Mode. A recent
hardware upgrade, which will be
installed on my car for free, improves
the accuracy of the road-sensing
camera by 10X.
WHEN WILL AUTONOMOUS
VEHICLES BE THE NORM?
Experts consistently under-estimate
technology adoptions rates and
over-estimate the accuracy of their
estimates. The most aggressive
estimate is that in about 10 years, a
majority of cars will be self-driving. A
middle-of-the-road estimate is 20 years.
Oil executives are suggesting demand
for gasoline-powered cars will remain
strong for 50 years. The losers in this
transition (e.g., car dealers, parking
lot owners, insurance companies, and
trial lawyers-all very powerful interest
groups!) will do what they can to slow
progress through effective campaigns
designed to spread fear, uncertainty,
and doubt. I will be fascinated for the
rest of my life to watch this transition
unfold.
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FALL 2018
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