Geopolitics Magazine November - December 2014 | Page 79

Geopolitics & Daily News Magazine
The amount of 526 trillion cubic of natural
gas encountered in the Eastern
Mediterranean Basin along with offshore
Crete and the Ionian Sea feet is, according
to BP Statistical Review of World
Hydrocarbon Reserves, 2013 more than the
total natural gas reserves of USA (300
trillion cubic feet) + the Canadian reserves
(70 trillion cubic feet) + the Mexican
reserves (12 trillion cubic feet).
Out of this amount, that is the 526 trillion
cubic feet of natural gas, 141 trillion cubic
feet (4 trillion M3) are allocated for the
internal needs of Egypt, Israel, Lebanon,
Cyprus and Greece while 350 billion cubic
feet (10 trillion M3) of natural gas are
available for export mainly to Europe or
elsewhere either by pipelines, or CNG/LNG ships.
European Union’s natural gas deficit today stands at 8.4 trillion cubic feet/year (roughly 240 billion
M3/year), Figures 3 and 4, and which is satisfied from Russia, 5.6 trillion cubic feet/year (roughly, 160
billion M3/year) and 3.2 trillion cubic feet/year (90 billion M3/year) from the North Africa countries, will
grow, beyond 2020, to 15.5 trillion cubic feet/year (440 billion M3/year). This additional demand
cannot be satisfied from Russia, due to the depletion of her natural gas fields, Figure 5.
Russia has 1165 trillion cubic feet (33 trillion M3) of natural
gas reserves out of which 777 trillion cubic feet (22 trillion M3)
are allocated for internal use leaving for export only 388
trillion cubic feet (11 trillion M3). Out of this amount 70 trillion
cubic feet (2 trillion M3), Figure 6, and have been allocated to
China leaving for export to Europe or elsewhere 318 trillion
cubic feet (9 trillion M3) of natural gas.
Also, North Africa cannot help the European Union because
their natural gas fields Figure 7, are depleting. If both Russia
and North Africa can sustain the todays supply of 8.4 trillion
cubic feet/year (240 billion M3/year) of natural gas. Recently
the idea of getting shale gas from USA has been advanced by
Figure 4. OECD Europe gas scenario. By
some members of the European Parliament This is unattainable 2020 European imports will climb to
because USA natural gas reserves stand at 8.5 Tcm (Trillion
442 Bcm/year
M3) and the annual consumption at 0.7 Tcm, BP Statistical
Review of World Energy 2013. This implies that the existing natural gas reserves will last only for 12
years. Therefore, even if the amount of the discovered shale gas is twice as much as the existing USA
reserves, Hence, USA will not export any significant amount of natural gas to any nation.
Also, there is additional problem. USA consumes daily 19 million barrels of oil out of which only 8
million barrels are produced within USA. The remaining 11 million barrels of oil, roughly 4 billion
barrels /year are imported. Around 2030, it is expected that the oil exporting countries will cease to
supply oil. Hence USA to counterbalance this energy deficit which is equivalent 623 Bcm/year (Billion
M3) they will rely on shale gas. This amount added to the annual consumption of 720 Bcm/year of
natural gas renders the idea of exporting natural gas to Europe highly unlikely.
From the above is abundantly clear the importance of Eastern Mediterranean Basin Europe in
meeting the forthcoming European energy demands as far as natural gas is concerned.Within this
context, Greece with highly probable natural gas deposits of 124 trillion cubic feet (3.5 trillion M3),
Cyprus with highly probable natural gas deposits of over 70 trillion cubic feet (over 2 trillion M3) and
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